Sorry if this chart is too busy, but Jesus... My initial target was 5k. But because the bulls have managed to hold onto it for dear life, they've validated an ABCDE triangle and have widened themselves from our most important support line. That is literally the worst thing they could have done. If the bulls had just accepted the loss, we could have dropped. hit our .786 fib extension, and bounce off of our support line.
But I have to call for an even more bearish fall here. We're losing sight of our support line. Daily Stoch has increased all the way to overbought on the daily just by bouncing $500, and we're looking at a 1-1 extension from waves A to B. I tried to find some things that could give us support at 5k regardless. And there ARE support zones labeled based on previous peaks of BTC in August-Septemeber (a critical time in BTC history). These create confluence and support zones where we can see reversal.
The .786 fib line is at $4,400. Which is also the peak of the high on September. Then I took the average drop of the past 4 major drops on this past run, which was roughly $2700 points. Where does that lead us? $4300. Then if we look at this support line (for the absolute low), that could take us to $4100 if TIME permits. I'm expecting a HARD sell off here because the Bulls have managed to drag this thing out. Remember when I said that people will panic sell at 5k... Imagine if that breaks, the ones who wanted 5k will surely be scared if this hits the low 4ks.
This actually is just disappointing. You all KNOW that I don't give financial advice on here. But for this one time, highly advise to NOT be long right now and get your cash ready for a SWING position. And when we bounce to 10k from 4k, take your money and run. Because I can say with absolute certainty that if we fall to $4.1-4.3k region, I will officially go 1 year bear market mode. This is what I did not want to see. But it's the cards we are dealt with, and what we have to face because of parabolic growth. And at the same time, I am not, nor will I be surprised - because this is something I've previously mentioned of being a scenario. This has potential to NOT be the year of the investor, but the year of the trader. Parabolic growth is only good for the moment. And only good if you just take your profits. We CAN bounce at 5k. No doubt, but now its less likely. The probability of that happening has now decreased.
I will upload previous charts and descriptions from the previous post, because the idea is still the same. But I want all of you to be aware of the possibilities that this year has to come. I want you all to end profitable, to regain any losses you've assumed over the past few months and give yourselves better set-ups for the future of Bitcoin. Because the future is STILL bright! Just not 2018 (if this drop happens).
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Here is an overall view of the chart since its been a while since we've seen it. Since we know that this is cycle wave 4. We can properly place our fib lines from the top at 19.9k to the bottom around $270 (i think thats where I put it at, not exactly sure right now).
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We may not even get to 7k. But here is the trade setup. Should not go over $7100.
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Can't sleep. Down goes Frazier!!
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Guys, I've never seen anything like this before. This is super super weird how BTC has bought back up. And It has me a bit nervous in my short-position I'm not going to lie.
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Holy cow guys... Woah. I'm out of the short. I've taken the loss here. This is incredible
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Guys, I was PURELY wrong. I can't believe my eyes right now, but this 100% looks like a reversal. This downtrend seems to be over. I would like to wait and see what it does with the daily resistance, but I'm in shock. It defied any odds of indicators and any signals of falling behind. I will continue to look at the charts here. But this is DEFINITELY unexpected on my part. And I apologize for being so incredibly wrong here. Sorry guys.
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When we make a make a bad call, we suck it up, accept the loss and move on. I expect us to break this daily resistance line, retest it and POSSIBLY try to hit $8500. We are still very overbought on Stoch RSI on multiple timelines. So I'd still expect a pretty big retrace after all of these waves are done with.
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What really worries me right now is the condition of the 12 hour indicators. We're in resistance zones and it would be pretty hard for BTC AND ETH to gain more bullish traction after a drop here. Bulls NEED this daily resistance to now become a support. Just because the price raised very quickly and bullishly today, does NOT mean we are out of the clear for a reversal a full reversal.
Could the run today be a strategy to liquidate short positions so that bids are decreased and we can have a pure sell-off that takes us down? Sure! Could this actually be a reversal? Sure! But what we've seen today was a major bull run, that completely died off. Based on short-term RSI indicators (hourly), it would make sense for us to get a higher high, and my original thesis to fall through, with this wave count. But bulls need to be very very cautious.
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We hit our green revised target at $8430! Right on the money. I'd expect some more retrace here. BTC does look weird as hell right now. But we are getting signs of bearishness. Expect a decent retrace here, I think we could fall all the way back to $7200.
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Well that was really good timing LOL. Dropped like 200 points in just minutes, right after I posted that. Both BTC and ETH having a bit of a bearish drop. Momentum will be very important to watch these next few days. Again, we want this correction to be a healthy one. Meaning a few stops and bounces along the way.
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I had a whole entire post that wouldn't upload then got deleted. So I'm leaving this here. I seriously have no idea what BTC is about to do. But if we break $8420, then we can rally all the way up to the $8800-$9050 region. And if we fail to do so and get a double top here, AND we fall through the bottom of wave 4, then we can find support at the $7250-$7500 range. It's very iffy right now because indicators are all showing different things.
I don't think short-term predictions right now are quite important for BTC in a week's time, because I do believe that by the time, BTC will either be of THIS currently value or lower. A week from now, we should be in correction time if we do go higher. But, we ARE in an uptrend. And I do not believe we will fall below $6400 for a few months.
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There it is. BTC has now entered the $8800-$9080 resistance zone.
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Guys, I don't know why, but I haven't been able to upload a new post? It keeps saying I have an error. Anyways, we saw a pretty fall last night, and we are currently retracing our way from that. BUT, that should only be the beginning. That fall cleared some things up. We reached the top of our resistance zone like some G's, and we should head down to the .618 level due to a high level of overbought zones on higher timeframes. Remember, we are still bullish, so we WANT to see a bumpy fall here with a few breaks along the way.
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I still cannot upload a new post for some reason. Here is the update. At dangerous levels with the possibility to rally to $9250. But not guaranteed to go higher.
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BTC gearing up for the $9250-$9400 range.
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There it is! You may want to consider taking profit here between the $9300-9600 range on BTC. We're testing the limits and awaiting a very big retrace here. We have not retraced much this whole run which is not a good thing. The run is reaching a level of exhaustion. There are only so many buyers in this market right now.
A long with this, there are many similarities to the last time we were in this position. The EMAs and candle stick readings are showing bearish intensions based on the last time we did this. Retesting the 55 EMA is very important to striking a bullish run. We have not retested it yet, SO we cannot assume that it is a level of support just yet. If we fall through it, we could assume a drop like last time is just as possible. We are at dangerous levels, but I'm still fairly bullish until proved otherwise.
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Now, its important to consider here that on the 30min to 1 hour time frame the Stoch RSI is resetting, the BB bands are squeezing that the MACD is crossed over. I would say that we may have another small jump, but I couldn't guarantee it.
Thanks for the warning here. I have begun to doubt this long-told drop would happen, but all the best traders seem to be insistent it will happen. I’m staying in cash.
samiswilf
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@Eball8 if btc retraces like you say, I will personally send you some of my profits the next time I make them. That's how much I'm in doubt of this. Everyone on trading view gets it wrong so much. Probably the people who are really good keep their predictions to themselves and a private group of people. Trading view seems like the place where news is spread for people to take losses. I only know one dude on trading view who has a good prediction record.
samiswilf
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There what is?
Elijah_Trading
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@samiswilf, previous update stated that its gearing up for the $9250-$9400 range. We are in that range now.
samiswilf
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@Eball8, man you said 4k target. how? That's more than *another* 50% drop.
@Eball8, I'm tired of this. No more listening to traderview dudes
Elijah_Trading
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@samiswilf, So please unfollow. Thanks, have a great day.
samiswilf
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@Eball8, I apologize for how I've acted. It's just I get emotional when I see btc price flying away into the sky and I feel like I'm getting "left behind" but also am scared to buy for fear of buying at the top. Then there's tension and I get frustrated. I apologize for taking it out on you. Please forgive me.
Elijah_Trading
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@samiswilf, its okay! I forgive you :D. But you must control emotions while trading, or they will get the best of you. It's important to always stay calm and never lose your cool! You must always stay on top of the trade and pay attention to what's going on during each move. During my updates I explained how for some reason I couldn't upload a new BTC post because an error kept popping up. And within my updates I continued to give updates on the bullish inclination that BTC has been showing this whole run. I do not think BTC will retrace that far YET. I've been bullish the past week on BTC, and I've explained on other posts and updates about how we should trend to 11k now. The only reason i've continued to update on here is because i couldn't upload a new post. Diligent and older followers of mine have understood that if they want to keep up with me, they must keep up with the updates. All is good, though. I have nothing against you!