Quick Thought on BTC
Ignore all the mess on this chart, most are just personal notes and such since this is the main chart I've been using.
The things I'm trying to highlight here for BTCUSD is the large time frame falling wedge that we have broken out of (with a little help from an inverse head and shoulders) on this most recent rally, and the rising wedge we broke out of last night in this smaller time frame pullback. Also interesting to note, we found resistance and failed to break back into the original trading range (white dashed horizontal line) formed by the wyckoff distribution I posted about several weeks ago (see linked idea below). This is crucial in that it indicates further distribution. Also this high is occurring on lower volume (looking at OBV). Note the broken RSI uptrend also, mirroring that of the last two LPS's and subsequent sell offs.
I was struggling to get an Elliott wave count I was happy with during this rally, but after we broke out of the sideways movement and broke above $10k it's looking like either a 5-3-5 zigzag correction, a minor wave 1 in the form of a leading diagonal, OR wave 4 of one smaller time frame for an incomplete wave 1 minor.
I see two options from here. Continued rally to $13k-$14k, or the more likely scenario (in my opinion) is a pullback and retest of the extended top trend line of the falling wedge. This most likely would occur with a 78.6% retrace of our rally from $5900, but could come in as early as the 50% or 61.8%. This is entirely technically based, however I will mentioned yesterday CME futures contracts settled; coincidence we saw such volatility? Who knows.
Love it or hate it, this is just an idea based on technicals.
*THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE*
The things I'm trying to highlight here for BTCUSD is the large time frame falling wedge that we have broken out of (with a little help from an inverse head and shoulders) on this most recent rally, and the rising wedge we broke out of last night in this smaller time frame pullback. Also interesting to note, we found resistance and failed to break back into the original trading range (white dashed horizontal line) formed by the wyckoff distribution I posted about several weeks ago (see linked idea below). This is crucial in that it indicates further distribution. Also this high is occurring on lower volume (looking at OBV). Note the broken RSI uptrend also, mirroring that of the last two LPS's and subsequent sell offs.
I was struggling to get an Elliott wave count I was happy with during this rally, but after we broke out of the sideways movement and broke above $10k it's looking like either a 5-3-5 zigzag correction, a minor wave 1 in the form of a leading diagonal, OR wave 4 of one smaller time frame for an incomplete wave 1 minor.
I see two options from here. Continued rally to $13k-$14k, or the more likely scenario (in my opinion) is a pullback and retest of the extended top trend line of the falling wedge. This most likely would occur with a 78.6% retrace of our rally from $5900, but could come in as early as the 50% or 61.8%. This is entirely technically based, however I will mentioned yesterday CME futures contracts settled; coincidence we saw such volatility? Who knows.
Love it or hate it, this is just an idea based on technicals.
*THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE*
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Ayyyy, don't count 'em until they're out.
