Ignore all the mess on this chart, most are just personal notes and such since this is the main chart I've been using.
The things I'm trying to highlight here for BTCUSD is the large time frame falling wedge that we have broken out of (with a little help from an inverse head and shoulders) on this most recent rally, and the rising wedge we broke out of last night in this smaller time frame pullback. Also interesting to note, we found resistance and failed to break back into the original trading range (white dashed horizontal line) formed by the wyckoff distribution I posted about several weeks ago (see linked idea below). This is crucial in that it indicates further distribution. Also this high is occurring on lower volume (looking at OBV). Note the broken RSI uptrend also, mirroring that of the last two LPS's and subsequent sell offs.
I was struggling to get an Elliott wave count I was happy with during this rally, but after we broke out of the sideways movement and broke above 10k it's looking like either a 5-3-5 zigzag correction, a minor wave 1 in the form of a leading diagonal, OR wave 4 of one smaller time frame for an incomplete wave 1 minor.
I see two options from here. Continued rally to 13K-14K, or the more likely scenario (in my opinion) is a pullback and retest of the extended top trend line of the falling wedge. This most likely would occur with a 78.6% retrace of our rally from $5900, but could come in as early as the 50% or 61.8%. This is entirely technically based, however I will mentioned yesterday CME futures contracts settled; coincidence we saw such volatility? Who knows.
Love it or hate it, this is just an idea based on technicals.
I can't see the previous chart but isn't your 4 in the price range of 1 also the 3rd down wave seems to be the shortest.
Manifested
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@neilroy7, Are you talking about the intermediate waves, the ones with parenthesis? Wave (5) is $7115 and wave (3) is $8047 (roughly calculated). You are correct about the overlap though..and a very good point. I have yet to make a post on it, but I have a theory that the last two pushes downwards were just an extended wave (3) meaning wave (5) has yet to begin. This is somewhat confirmed by the fact that our rally topping out near the bottom of wave (1).
Elliott theory states that overlap of wave 3 and 1 can occur on rare occasions and only in leveraged markets (i.e. futures, etc.), which bitcoin is definitely subject to some large leverage (100x on bitmex, etc.)
Manifested
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@Manifested, Edit: Wave (4) not wave (3) with regards to overlapping wave (1).
neilroy7
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@Manifested, True that wave 4 can fall in the price range of wave 1 but that is mostly seen in the an ascending or descending wave formation, Your count does not follow this scenario. Also in none of the cases out there can a wave 3 be the shortest wave. I am just trying to learn a new thing here. Please don't think I am trying to be over smart. :)
krakenrise
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Hi, how do you get multiple exchanges into one symbol? When i try copy and paste it i get 'invalid symbol' message. Thank you.
Manifested
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@krakenrise, It removes the exchange names. Try copy and pasting this: (KRAKEN:XBTUSD+COINBASE:BTCUSD+BITFINEX:BTCUSD+BITSTAMP:BTCUSD+BITFLYER:BTCJPY*FX_IDC:JPYUSD+(BITSTAMP:BTCUSD+BITFINEX:BTCUSD+COINBASE:BTCUSD+KRAKEN:XBTUSD)/4/((KORBIT:BTCKRW*FX_IDC:KRWUSD+XCOIN:BTCKRW*FX_IDC:KRWUSD)/2)(KORBIT:BTCKRWFX_IDC:KRWUSD+XCOIN:BTCKRW*FX_IDC:KRWUSD))/7