Why? If it breaks 6k, it means the first correction leg is not over and we get a much longer bear market than anyone are thinking now and the prospects for crypto will be bad, when it it still has to undergo the adoption and implementation phase, hence required capital.
The fact that most are scared as hell and even amateurs are shorting near the bottom now makes me think we're ready for a good move up.
I've laddered down buys and bought spot and continue to do so.
I do not listen to people who never experienced any bear market and think the only way is down, down, down AFTER the obvious fact (why are they always late to anything is beyond me) when I was shorting every bounce since January when they laughed me at being bearish, while the same people are continuously switch bull/bear positions every hour when btc makes a move based on emotion and lack of knowledge, which I cannot take seriously or dedicate any energy or time to. I used to scalp this in high volatile moves, but markets have dried up considerably, so I'm looking for a good swing trade without third party counter risk and rollover fees, hence spot buys. I do the opposite and can't wait for another huge liquidation en masse.
Remember, market maker loves to do the opposite of positions, just watch since the start of bitfinex position data feed, so it can make money and yes, they need to earn money as well.
Imho, this isn't a bad place to buy with ~65% discount from the top for the short-middle term to get 1.5x return or double or triple your account.
In the end, it's all about money- and riskmanagement anyway and the returns for shorting here vs buying have diminished returns and carry much higher risk.
How high do we go? No one knows, but a strong impulsive move is due. I'm confident we will see at least see 9.4k and have enough cash at the ready to buy more to facilitate that move.
If we do see capitulation from here, which is very unlikely, I'll buy that as well.
Do not be fearful, that's what dumpers want you to be so they buy cheaper from the bottom back. How do you think spoofy has increased his stack significantly? If (s)he/they really wanted to sell that bottom, it would be out, ain't coming back and not manipulating every single day. Makes sense, right?
I've criticized hodling a time ago in one of my posts, but there is a place for hodling, which is:
- Cheap price (it's still high, but cheap enough for a short-mid term trade comparing to what is dumped and you never know what will happen anyway (i.e. continuing for the next bull run), so to have some crypto in your portfolio is a good thing from a long term as well as from an investment perspective as well)
- Another valid point is that of the now famous article of "the cartel", which in conclusion is about the goal of market share (thus control) for manipulators, which I've pointed out as well in one of my posts about crypto fraud a time ago, i.e. the redistribution of wealth. Why do you think control freaks usually end up in a position they're craving for? There is a method to their madness and there isn't much method to the masses.
Some FA will follow in this post.
I've explained some of my arguments in
To extend that, the market cap is tiny to what will be a big part of what's coming in the future, especially once regulated and companies are working on real world solutions and even some privacy currencies for private societies within a global open society, as one of the best traders ever, George Soros likes to call it.
I think the United Nations can vouch for this too, as they also adore Stellar.
I've thought and meditated about the future of crypto and maybe I should lower my bearish expectations a little bit for even the short-medium term, which I reflected on my outlook above (inc. the chart). To proof that, I've laddered in buys and bought as I don't want to miss out and don't mind to lose 30% if it will make thousands of % later on. Of course, this is small size of my available capital.
Extra arguments why I'm bullish that way more money is coming in is that corporations, small funds, investment groups and other fund/hedge companies still need to get in. Some hedge funds went in too early at the wrong time, but I'm very sure there will be much more to follow suit once the market settles with regulations and insurances in place.
What is notable is that George Soros made it public that he's gonna trade crypto's (as an institutional trader), so he probably already shorted, because news comes after the fact, whether by design or not. We know this, as they pulled a classical scam with xrp on cnbc when xrp was at the top and they always have done this for traditional stocks as well.
So where does the institutional trader fit in the market cycle? They come out when the market has almost bottomed and are ready for the next bubble. They're usually classified as being in 1/3 of the super cycle (i.e. 2 more bubbles to go), while the masses are the last one for the last big bubble at the top, which aren't still in yet, while crypto is the most easiest and accessible place to buy and sell compared to the dot com stock market period.
They come in before the pension and other funds step in. Corporations are not allowed to buy shares in speculative assets as of yet (or securities/commodities), but they have come before the HFT and institutional traders, which fits the classical market participant cycle a 100%. Also, many retail traders have to come in yet.
Maybe I should adjust my views and we might not see 3.3k anymore. 4.8k, maybe, who knows. I doubt the big boys will let it drop too much, as they've too much invested already, like the winklevoss brothers with their own pool.
They use mathematical and statistical algorithms following the big boys (in the darkpools) or attempt to do so, whilst many traders and fomo'ers/folo'ers chase HFT price action. They also can use indicators to lure in more traders and do the opposite of what was expected, hence I never use indicators, but use some of my own for backtesting only. It's dangerous to use indicators with hft in the game.
It's very simple:
#1 Volume declining for downtrend. The last huge dumps, especially last one and price barely moved, which are very bullish signs;
#2 Shorts at an ath, +17k in few weeks and price barely moved. Not many sellers anymore, so the short squeeze is about to happen. Lots of criers and quitters soon, again. Good, you should have shorted at the top and not near the bottom, it's part of money and risk management, this is no more amateur game and easy money. Shorters going to pay if this was bottom and I'm sure we're near it, even if we go lower, because when they close, the price is going to skyrocket and a lot will be liquidated, since a lot shorted around 7k. Enough rocket fuel for 11k. This is why I take longs/shorts finex data feed with a big salt of grain, like I've said before, not the smartest folks who short bottoms and long tops and lots to lose when you follow the masses (just do the RR yourself, what is better: shorting at 11.7k or 6k and EVEN if 4.8k is bottom, the shorts need to close and the order book does NOT facilitate +17k back to 7.5k, it will be over 10k. This will not be the "big short", but the "big short squeeze" and champagne bottles popping.
#3 Lots of big money coming in. Have told a few friends here on tv last week before the news of the big boys came in from some clients who want to put big money in and I'm not talking few millions here;
#4 Very bullish news coming in june/july, especially with regulations and governments, eu and un pro crypto. Compare dot com bubble with crypto, we're not even close, especially considering:
a) More people on the planet today;
b) Very easy to buy and sell everywhere in the world where we have the internet now;
c) QE caused for more inflation.
I was not only one attacked for calling bitcoin bubble in december and people calling me stupid when I shorted 17k and 11.7k when they were long. Now they short the bottom again when I'm buying spot all the way down, they never learn.
But Peter Brandt afaik was the the FIRST one who called the bubble pop on 22 December 2017, the real legend was 100% right again. And look at his comments, EVERYONE attacked him as well, so now you can imagine what I've felt, just read comments on his tweet.
The normie traders saw the bubble pop late March 2017, sorry, but I cannot take them serious. Do you know what buy low, sell high means? I doubt anybody can give me the high and low given a chart at any given time and being right. Talking is easy, making > 80% winning trades is not.
Of course there are correlations with previous bubble in '14, but that does NOT mean it will go exactly as that, especially given exposure and good things that are coming out this year. That's why I've said before to have an open mind and not being dogmatic, because all successful people I've met are openminded, always wanting to learn and grow and are not dogmatic.
Good luck my friends and don't fear, because that's what bottom shorters all are hoping for and trying to achieve with the most bearish charts, to cover their losses when they flip their sentiment out of the blue.
Ok, even if we 95% are replaying '14, then on the monthly chart, we would have to make a triple top around 11k and the bottom before that would be ~5.8k'ish and since the top had a $300 delta, it would basically be a double bottom around 6k as well. That would be close to my target of 11.15k.
If we really are nit picky, then we would have to increase the price of bitcoin with 5x as well (100k btc) to have the same bullrun % to apply the same correction % or it won't count as saying we replayed 2014, would it? And what about 2011 (10x is 200k btc for ~90% correction)? Therefore, I don't expect a correction to 3.3k anymore, because then we would have to take the entire structure in to reconsideration and calculate with log mean regression which points to 3 digits. It's possible, but unlikely. It won't happen anytime soon, crypto and blockchain has not even been implemented yet for real world use. You can wait on the sidelines for that bottom and in the meantime miss the next and maybe last bullrun, buy a bit and hold for the long term or buy and set a stop for a few % lower and buy back cheaper if you're wrong. The differences between 3k vs 6k vs 20k are significantly larger for the latter pair than the former. So if you wan't to execute proper money management, you always scale in and out a fraction of your capital in relation to risk:reward. It's the difference between buying near the bottom and enjoying the ride of 6k to almost 12k and not being in at all or buying at 9k for half of what you could have made minus the scaling delta.
'13 and '14 were very bad years and I remember those and mt gox was just a catalysator in an already downwards market, not because mt gox, but despite it. The real kicker was the central bank of China blocking all bitcoin transactions from and to any entity. And I doubt it was because of China alone, because there were fake bot pumps from mt gox itself pumping up the price ~10x in ~2 months.
So you had less money coming in, but price pumped 10x and with mt gox issues, the selling was sharp and the finishing move.
At the moment, we have had huge sell offs, but not the same situation as then when a lot of money was getting out with a lot less market participants and more risk. Right now, a lot of money still needs to come in. And yes, it's a bubble, but we've corrected pretty hard in a relatively short time so the redistribution of wealth can actually be completed pretty fast, although I think we need to finish the entire correction instead of trying to truncate it, but that means up first and reevaluate on the way, because that's an open question how much people value bitcoin, i.e. willing to pay for what price, since the interests are huge, but everybody interested wants to buy it as cheap as possible, unlike the hype and fomo.
Going lower than 5.2k and I consider a failed ew correction since '15 and entering a full blown bear market which lasts longer than the previous one taking the bubble before it into the calculation to end possible in the 3 digits, starting with 4.8k then 3.3k which was my original roadmap for months now. Then people make new roadmaps that go even lower until we end up with 3 digits btc.
It then becomes a selffulling prophecy and then the entire point of darkpools become a stupid idea for the short term, as those big boys are better off putting $500 million buy orders in the books to defend their wealth and small whales have no chance to manipulate the market further or execute one large order at the exchange to punish margin traders in any direction by force liquidating or stopping them out.
I don't see it happening, because the returns would be higher than previous bullruns, which is extremely unlikely if we look at logarithmic growth (also over time where it takes longer and longer) where each bullrun gets more diminished returns, which follows the law of big numbers.
Just like when people wanted and called 10k, then didn't buy, then called 8k, then didn't buy, then called 6k, then didn't buy, then called 4k and didn't buy. Please.
It's not finished yet. +$1300 in 1 hour, beautiful short squeeze, but instead of closing, they DOUBLE DOWN, didn't I told you that before which some of my whales friends did before as well? This, ladies and gentleman, is the redistribution of dumb/luck money to the bigger boys and a sure way in to poverty and back to being an employee at McDonalds (and there is nothing wrong to the latter to be honest).
Keep shorting the bottom geniuses. Buy low sell high does not apply to you, which also goes to a lesser extend for trend followers.
The pump was facilitated with spot buys. The longs vs shorts keep going down, especially that long close of 2.4k and price still shoots to +15%.
For all naysayers and those who attacked me, we're not finished here and you'll get what you deserve. Do not cry on reddit how you lost 80% in daytrading or blame others for your mistakes, please.
If 17k still needs to be closed when they opened around an average of $7.3k and we take $8k as the average and we take someone like George Soros who want to make easy and quick money, he would liquidate them for easy $136 million gains in less than one week - minus overhead + fomo and breakout traders (give or take another $40 million). Now given they keep doubling down at an average of 1.2 per +%10, that still is more fuel to the upside, albeit lower rr, good and easy enough money for any market maker straight to 11k. Like I've said before, that's how mm books profit, since they need to earn money as well.
Longs closing, shorts increasing and price going up, up and up. Beautiful. As said before, a strong bullish signal and a good confirmation normies need to feel more pain and that we're not done yet.
For those naysayers that margin/debt does not matter like long/short ratio, you ever wondered about how MM needs to make money, doesn't matter which market? Debt will always come back to you eventually. Do you know anything in this game at all or are you just gambling and mumbo jumbling and keep being a sheep? You ever wondered how bubbles are formed? Do you even wonder the most simple question how it's possible for you to make or lose money?
Talking about bubbles, there is a good book (~160 years old; be sure to get the right version) that talks about the psychology of why this happens:
Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions
I'm speaking common sense here, which is my goal for you to eventually become successful in your own right without the need to follow others' calls, including me. I don't give financial advice and my thoughts are my own and will have sometimes bad calls. I don't care to have many followers and to be honest, I want it as small as possible and believe in cause and effect. Those who want or are supposed to hear it will and those who don't, do not. Simple as that.
I've got a feeling some big moves are in the making in the coming two weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't reach retrace target with $50-$100 given the bullish bias across the board, which we haven't seen for quite some time, so scale in if you still want to get in using spot buys or enjoy watching the markets.
It's looking very bullish and did as of yet not retrace to 38.2%, which I'm not surprised of like I've said last night by $50-$100, but it stopped even higher than that, very nice. It's possible we still go visit it, but it becomes more unlikely as a new structure is forming for newer lower highs.
I see a current structure forming for the next impulse up if it holds the higher low, which looks to be ready to complete very soon, so do not take this as fact, these are my observations to capitalize on early opportunities with a higher degree of risk but better rewards.
I repeat: Do NOT base your targets on mine in chart below, as it's not confirmed. This is more in line of education than anything else and seeing things others don't to give you an idea of my mindset and methodology. I sometimes use my own indicators to backtest and level 2 marketprofile we use at the office to spot high probability reversal zones.
If so, 8.9k, pullback, then 9.4k, which I'm looking for for weeks now (the test of 9.4k). If break that, which is high probability, it can go anywhere between 11.5k-16k, but looking to book small profit at 11.15k.
As for me, I don't have to trade for a living, I've got secondary income and when I see discounts I add to my bags for the long haul. As for profits, 50% goes back in to btc, to take some marketshare away without the intent to sell it too early, which helps the price to go up, which is a win-win for everybody who're in now or still want to get in and are not on the short side.
I'm looking forward for Monday, when more money arrives at the exchanges, at least mine is cleared last Friday, but not yet arrived. As many of you know, I was mostly in cash for the last several months and see a bigger potential up than down for the last few weeks now, with so many sell offs around the bottom that were absorbed very nicely.
I've to repeat this one more time, since people think it's whales play only, it's possible, but not likely, imho. With bigger money coming in and still is way more to come, whales do not dictate price in near future anymore, if not already is (since the observation of rampant hft price action, which I've told you earlier about), as whales becoming small fish themselves (and yes, they got roasted on the short side, too bad for them, but most of them were manipulating themselves with huge insta dumps using fakenews websites as an excuse, so karma came back to wipe them clean, so they've been taught a lesson to also not underestimate the intelligence and power of big boys and are now a lot less more poor (there goes your 4-7 years of trading gains wiped out in seconds and I know some who never cashed out a single dollar; call it cause and effect, karma, balance of nature, chi, whatever, you get the point) - why take over exchanges when you can own them at their own game) and playing with hundreds of millions of dollar orders in darkpools, it's just playing with fire to overleverage on any exchange or broker, as it's in their best interest to maintain pricelevel to protect their wealth.
You'd do the same if you invested $500 million dollars in to btc for x price, you'd defend x price on the exchanges themselves eventually vs small whale play and petty manipulators who are trying to destroy your wealth with relative meager sized orders to maintain price floor and punish them, makes sense, right?
I still think that we're in a correction that spans 3 years, but I'm confident enough we break all petty low resistance points and eventually to a lesser extent 12k. When it corrects, I want to see a firm invalidation breaking 16k thereafter to end this bear market. It's way too early to tell and as of now, it seems unlikely for the short term, but with enough confidence and new and returning market participants (see the major interest at bittrex reopening registrations, what a great confirmation that was fa wise). If majority thinks bear market is ending in 2019, that means the bottom is in if I apply the relative price-time moves as to their claims. If so, they can say later on they were right :-)
I do not know if bottom is in for years to come, I will not make that claim. For the short term (next 6-8 weeks), yes I think it's in and was thinking that for few last weeks.
Of course, there is also a possibility that we're being played, but RR long term is of course to the long side, especially:
1) Once regulated, I can see a lot more money coming in;
2) Then the adoption phase begins where we can use the crypto in real life (I'm really looking forward for that, that would give an enormous boost);
3) Then the masses come in for the final big bubble worldwide, even in third world countries.
That's how I see it.
Everyone wants the bottom and top, but almost nobody will ever get it. Why not scaling in or out and have patience :-)
#1 Lower Highs
#2 Much longer consolidation period AND most importantly, accumulating
Given all the circumstances prior, it was a matter of time before an explosive move up was to be made, which I've expected and is to be seen in chart prior when it happened.
#1 Higher Lows
#2 Much longer consolidation period AND most importantly, accumulating
If superbullish and first minor support holds, you can expect a retest of 9.4k and can land anywhere between 9.4-9.5k, maybe an overshoot to 9.7k, otherwise I expect 9.1k.
Then correction going back to 7.5k (I don't expect this, although many will, a) that's why it probably won't happen and b) the better argument, is that btc is known to not make deeper corrections in stages like this, but too early to tell now) and when superbullish, 8.15-8.2k needs to hold.
a) Super bullish: 8.3 -> 9.4-9.7
b) Normal trajectory: 7.8 -> 9.1
For very short term 8.5 before retracement.
I'm still expecting at least 11.15k for the short-medium term as a minimum with a moderate expectation of 12.4k. Nobody can know where if it goes to 16k or above and end the bear market at this time. It can consolidate for weeks, so be patience.
It's okay to buy with a tight stop or going for the bigger swing, but I can see a point in waiting for confirmations, but I'm not that guy. I rather take changes when I see key significant reversals and buy near bottom or sell near top for better returns vs higher risk, but to each their own.
Afaik, hedge funds, pension funds, etc. don't short, but go for the long haul. I'd be surprised if the billion us dollar hedge funds and institutional traders who're in already allow them to buy cheap coins and see their own interest tank. On the other hand, it's not July yet and bureaucrats are very slow... so anything can still happen.
Therefore, I'd not be surprised if we see a trading range between 11-16k or even 9-13k for the majority of the remaining year.
As far as I see it, a lower price floor means a redistribution of wealth, since hodlers and long term investors are probably buying on a regular basis to add more to their position vs weak hands who sell near the bottom and are too emotional to come back later to buy back in higher, which brings me to wallstreet's cycles of a market which I've posted in "why hodling is stupid" - Are we at the disbelief stage? Before I've just thought about this, I've observed and spoken of those who still think it's just a sucker's rally and/or a bulltrap who kept readding shorts at 7.7k, the same guys who were euphoric at the double top and went long... when I called it the "normal phase" in my quick scalping post, but only time will tell to confirm this one, but it doesn't really matter, it just something to add to my experience and a reminder why history keeps repeating itself.
Anywho, for the long term, I suspect they're also looking at charts like these:
Just my thoughts, since there is nothing more to add at the moment.
The problem with hft price action is, is that it's now in smaller scale accumulation zone where most think it's just consolidation for another leg down to target. I'm not surprised if we grind up before another pump to target 8.5 before finding support on the minor 8.325 to either complete pattern or make a larger time scale M pattern to 7.85/7.9k instead of finding support at 7.785/7.8.
That's one of the reasons why I don't bother to do these smaller timeframes anymore.
What I do like to see is that shorts are doubling down again at these price levels before going up again, at a ratio of 2k to 1.2k. Forcing your way vs hft's is just asking to get wiped out again for meager few digits % return, not so smart imho other than a quick scalp.
I don't mind which way it goes for the short term, since I'm looking to get in more with fresh money arrived.
Happy trading all.
Targets in chart + Invalidation and confirmation levels for bear market. This can take many months to complete, but interesting nonetheless, at least for me.
That being said, there is not much to add at the moment again. The corrective structure for this latest impulsive one is of course unknown, but I really don't care to daytrade this since I lack time and interest for small gains. If there are big moves, I'll capitalize on that.
But like I've said before, the ending of the bear market needs to be confirmed/proven, and the chart I've posted before is just an idea that hasn't even unfolded yet.
Just because I've capitalized on spotting bullish reversal signs and bought in prior doesn't mean I'm not cognitive of the situation that a possibility still exists to continue the downtrend, although extremely unlikely for quite some time.
Read Fredric Bastiat's works to understand the psychology of most people, which brings forth misunderstandings.
For textbook confirmations, you're looking at a breakout of:
And as a bonus, those were all 50% retracements to prior swing highs-low son the bigger structures. It seems those hft's are programmed really well, because for many years before end of '17, this never happened to this extreme and people used to trade with indicators like ichimoku and even naked chart scalping, while most used classical chart patterns and trendlines. The ew and wyckoff traders came later and populated tv more and more and if you do some backtesting and compare it to now, you constantly see results you don't expected years before.
And here is the issue, because to have an edge, you need to be ahead of others and/or have your own methodology, imho. So if your methodology brings 80% winning trades, use it and stop caring what others think of your style. You don't owe them anything.
Most of the early people were libertarian minded people and saw and still see the potential in bitcoin and keep adding to their bags (primarily not financial wise, but as a means to bring and implement chance, the investment opportunities came later - because lets be honest, anybody in here years before we never knew it would be this big when it was just a few dollars and that it would go to 20k in just several years, that's just a welcome bonus), whilst the majority came in late '17 and truly are here for the money only and don't care about the tech or philosophy and you know I'm right.
The argument can be made it was cheap back then, but that is hindsight and thus invalid, because if you bought it back then and lost 80-90% you'd not speak like this and most of the people didn't care as much as the newer people do now and that is probably WHY this bubble collapsed at the price near 20k instead of much lower.
You know why? Because the market makers probably know you better than you know yourself and know that that majority (latecomers) care ONLY about money, so they have lured you in with the pump, bullish news everywhere, to then dump and they know human nature being stunned/denial/disbelief they still can dump for the high prices on the rebound, while it truly was your last chance to get out and this is EXACTLY the time a lot of new people came in and bought "the dip". The worst thing is, most are psychological, emotionally and even financially destroyed, but on the other hand, this is a good life lesson, but probably are much worse off than those in '11 and '14, because they care only about money that they took money they could not afford to lose.
There are fundamental different school of thoughts between the two kinds of people as you can already read, those who think it's worth nothing (but then why do you hodl other than trade) while the others think it's invaluable and will go up (the early guys, who see potential and newer entrepreneurial type of people besides libertarians). And this goes back to the Austrian vs Keynesian economics, the latter which we're indoctrinated with since early age and most didn't have the privilege to even study let alone hear about Austrian economics.
Which brings me to what "value" is. If you're an Austrian or libertarian/classical liberal, you'd know it's subjective and is determined by the market.
Quote (Principles of Economics):
"The subjective theory of value is a theory of value which advances the idea that the value of a good is not determined by any inherent property of the good, nor by the amount of labor necessary to produce the good, but instead value is determined by the importance an acting individual places on a good for the achievement of his desired ends."
To understand this and act in truth, you probably want to read more Mises instead of Marx, if you don't want to end up as a poor man in both spirit and wealth, to live a prosperous and free live, to then bring that forth to others so all can win to bring man out of bondage and suffering.
And this is important to know, because you'd understand why bitcoin never stayed in the 2 digits range, why shorting herballife was not a good idea, even when you're right and why people went in to bitconnect, knowing full well it was a ponzi scheme, but profited before the collapse. You can spot opportunities not only in trading, but also in real life and see problems early on while most cannot. Maybe those are the fruits of the ethical and truthful ways of living, who knows.
So in recap, 9.1k is critical to break and 7.55k to hold, then you probably want to up your stop loss when we reach 11.5k and the same goes for 12.8k. For many, breaking 13k would mean bear is over, as for me, it's 17k with the first sign at 14k to smash down that corrective idea. It can take months, if not for the rest of the year, so be patience.
Have a wonderful week.
You'd know when targets are being met and this needs to come either with volume in a short period of time or a long accumulation time, so the words short and medium term are a bit awfully placed when timing is the most improbable thing to predict, if not close to impossible :-)
Hope this cleared things up.
From an overall perspective, the dotted lines represent blocks, with the lower white ones that are a potential for future setup.
Some people think it's in a triangle count, could be, I went with the correction within correction setup for a regular flat for the larger structures, because the triangle count is imho too obvious. Fibs lined up with other instruments, hence confluence zones, which makes me inclined with my own idea.
Note, this is long term and you need to be patience as it can take the majority of the year. A firm break of 17k is still required.
Will update when we reach targets or when I see key reversal signals. I'm very confident for weeks that we break 10k, it's just a matter of time. ~13k gets trickier, that's why you should raise stops after we go past 11k to preserve profits and buy back in if it there is a structure for more upside, in my opinion.