Here is an idea for ASX 200 - this is a monthly chart so I think this plays out in the next 12-18 months. There are many key technical and fundamental indicators screaming this house of cards is about to come crashing down. It will rebound and rebound hard, with lots of government intervention and bailouts, but the writing on the wall is red.
Some facts. 1. Home loans have now reached 0.5 mil per mortgage average amongst all households. This is 13x the wage - 2. Aussies are 198% in debt. 3. Wage growth is stagnant. 4. Employment rate is high, but a lot of it is part-time and contractual (non permanent). 5. Roughly 1.5 mil new immigrants every 10 years. 6. Research just came out showing immigration is the key factor in home sales along with foreign investments. 7. ARPA (independent body that checks home loans) refused to release data on "Liar Loans" since 2016. 8. Big 4 china investors in real-estate (commercial) are now pulling out of foreign investments. 9. The number of cranes in Melbourne in 5x those in new york or any other major metropolitan.
And here is the kicker. ASX is 25% just 4 banks, which are overexposed to home loans at the moment.
Do your research -- this party is about to come to an end.
Please ignore the bitcoin premiums on top (my layout is set and I mostly trade BTC).
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Uh Oh .....
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Took some profits here.
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Time to short again.
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Flirting with resistance
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Critical moment. If we break this (and it looks like we just may) time to cover shorts and reenter later.
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Ready? Do or die coming up.
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Popped above resistance ... quite surprised actually ... watching very closely as this could trigger a run to 6800
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This is still a short call. However need to keep a very close eye
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Hello then ;) that didnt take as long as I imagined it would.
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Pray for the ASX. At support now. I expect a small rally. Fireworks Q1 2019.
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Fed hiked rates ... more blood bath incoming. Santa rally denied.
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Channel bottom close now. Lets see what happens. If this breaks it bad.
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Bounced off channel bottom.
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Moment of truth. Either this is a dead cat (which I think it may be) or a new rally starts here. There are no reasons right now for a rally thoug.
Facts, facts, facts. That's how you come up with a solid analysis. Will follow closely, thanks for the share!
Lorenz_Capital
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Very nice analysis. I believe we are already in a global economic recession as well, the fiat (central banking) monetary system is doomed; equity markets coming down will be the final straw. But you are absolutely right about government intervention - the plunge protection team will do everything in their power to support the market, not to mention the central bank and their ability to conduct "open market operations" which essentially means "buy up all the assets" - i see this as the end stages to a fundamentally corrupt and flawed monetary system, which always had an inevitable expiration date, and the time is near. My instinct is to short the market as well, but going up against the us government and global central banks is not ideal for me. I prefer to do this by betting long in precious metals as well as crypto. Best of luck with your shorts!
simple_don
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Hi there glad I found your post. Your as much of a bear as I. My choice is to express a down turn in global equities via ASX200. I have been trying to build a position here for about 6 months. Good luck. I’ll follow your updates. Cheers
electo
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@simple_don, thanks! I am not much of a bear but ASX is based on 4 banks and those banks are shady.