Hi friends! Welcome to this analysis on Stellar! =D Let's get right into it. Looking at the four hour chart, we can quickly see that stellar is in trouble. After breaking out of the ascending broadening wedge pattern (blue dashes,) and making an all time high, stellar broke down back into the wedge, and traded all the way down to the 200 EMA in purple (held.) After holding the 200 EMA, XLM rallied back above the wedge pattern (breakout,) but quickly rolled over and fell back into the wedge (failure.) Currently, XLM is also trading below the 50 EMA in orange. It appears as though XLM has started to form a downtrend channel (pink dotted trendlines.) Additionally, we can see that there has been a negative shift in momentum, causing a bearish crossover on the MACD (red circle.) From here, I would expect further downside. Initial downside targets are the 50% retracement level, around 50 cents, and then the 200 EMA in purple, around 45 cents. On the upside, for the bulls to establish an uptrend, they will have to breakout above the falling channel, and above the ascending broadening wedge. As a side note, an ascending broadening wedge pattern is a bearish pattern, that usually results in a break of the lower support level. I'm not saying that will happen, it's just something to keep in mind.
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@dmblades, Xlm has hit a key .5 fib from the lows around .40 on 1/11 to the highs on 1/13. This thing banged off the entrancement level and is going to break a dollar by the end of January.
Hello,
The failure of that breakout could also be attributed to an across the board downturn for the ALTS at that exact time. It has followed the majority of ALTS very closely in downturn and turning back up. Couldn't the breakout continue after this?