Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Stellar! Looking at the four hour chart, you can see that XLM
has fallen from the uptrend channel
that we discussed in my last post. The bulls appeared to be gaining some steam, after forming a new uptrend channel
, but at the moment, the bottom of the channel is being broken. We can see that the 50 EMA
(in orange) was lost, and price action is now falling toward the 200 EMA
(in purple.) Looking at the MACD
, we can see that sell-side momentum continues to expand to the downside, as the bears come out of hibernation. Ultimately, we can expect to see further downside. You can see that the 200 EMA
and the 50% retrace are converging, which should strengthen that level as support. I would expect to see some sort of a reaction at that level. However, if XLM
blows straight through it, the bears will have snapped two support levels in one fell swoop, which would likely trigger even more selling. This failure is a testament to what I've been saying the whole time, but the bulls just don't want to hear it. Looking at the overall picture, you can see that we're in a huge formation, known as an ascending broadening wedge
. This is a bearish
formation, that typically results in a break to the downside. Don't believe me? Look it up. At the top of the wedge
, you can see that there was a huge failed breakout, as price exploded to all time highs, then quickly dropped back into the wedge
pattern. The overall picture, tells me that the biggest pattern (which is the wedge
) is trumping everything else. I have looked at the recent price action from the highs, and considered that we may be building an inverted head and shoulders
pattern, but until conclusive evidence of that is available, I cannot side with the bulls.
Everyone seems to think that I'm some sort of perma-bear, "fud-spreading," compulsive fearmonger on crypto markets, but that's only because we're in a BEAR MARKET! It's like they want me to come out here and tell them that it's going to be sunny, and the flowers will be blooming, and the birds will be chirping — when in reality, we're in a hurricane that is ripping people's investments apart. To them, I say "be as delusional as you like. Just don't expect me to participate in your delusions."
If and when the bulls take control of this market, I'll probably be hailed as the greatest analyst who ever lived. They'll love me because I'll be siding with the bulls, and telling them everything they want to hear. They'll probably carry me through the streets on a golden litter, while some feed me grapes and fan me with big palm leaves. Who knows? We've all got to dream big. Unfortunately, I know that my dream may never come true, because I rightfully understand that this entire market could completely collapse, and never come back.
This has been your not-so-humble market wizard, droppin' knowledge like bombs in this place! Please follow, comment, like, and share on social media. Good luck trading everyone!
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
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