Was bearish on XMR for a while, but the market conditions seemed to have changed. Very nice fake out down below support, but zooming out it just looks like a higher low, and now we have finally broken through horizontal resistance we failed to break through 3 times prior. Looks like the market may cool down after such huge panic buying, but this does look like it is going much higher eventually.
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Price acting as expected, looks good so far, also i noticed this abcde EW triangle, which are usually either wave 4 or wave b, and if you zoom out to the weekly, this does look like a wave 4. Anyway here is the triangle on the daily chart:
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Looks to me like we just completed wave b of wave E to me. Here is the daily and 1h chart. You can see the details on the 1h.
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Maybe something like this:
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the second higher 1 is a mistake, please ignore it : )
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Going according to plan, looks like wave 3 of c of E is underway...
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Hmm interesting, did not think wave E was over based on the zoomed in view but now we just made a new high. We are at resistance from the blue dotted trendline now though: Lets see if the price can break through this trendline and close above it...if not it means I am still correct and wave E is not over yet.
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Did some rethinking, and this count actually makes more sense. And a .618 retracement of wave d is allowed. Possible I could be wrong but that's what i think.
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Still more down to come but this next dip down may be the time to buy:
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Its possible that is all the down we get, but I think we could still go a bit lower next week. Anyway, great time to buy, and if it goes lower, you can buy more:
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Pack the trunks on this next drop
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Pack your bags : )
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Looks like we are either done or real close to done falling and this should reverse soon:
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Don't get too greedy : ) Seems likely the low is in:
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Also, zooming out to the daily chart, indicators look primed for takeoff:
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Looking great! Bullish engulfing suggests bottom:
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So far so good. Keep an eye on the 2h chart, *if it makes a new low then we may put in one more major low on the daily chart (a kiss of the 50 EMA). But more likely the bottoms is in. Good luck
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*close below : ) Pro tip: Always look for closes in these illiquid markets. And watch out for people painting the type on teh last 30 seconds of the candle. If you are following a pair against btc, is it going down because some doof just sold or because the actual ratio of x/USD coin compared to btc/usd is going down. If that makes any sense.
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Price bounced off my line nicely, but now heading back down a bit, thats okay as long as it doesn't break though. The one thing I caught that scares me a bit (in terms of potential for another low) is this potential cup and handle downtrend continuation pattern on the XMR/USD 4h chart: imgur.com/a/WEXNA Not expecting it to play out, but definitely something to keep an eye on.
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So far so good:
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Kinda sorta closed below the line kinda didn't. This still can bounce, keep an eye on XMR/USD, if it can get back above $92-93 it should start to get going and that should get XMR/BTC going. If and the ratio breaks below the pink line than probably one more low to the mid .019xx's or so.
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Still looking okay, another 2 days until the weekly candle closes. Just need to avoid a huge dump over the next day or two. If we can do that the weekly should come out as a nice reversal candle (either a spinning top or doji).
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4h chart potential Adam and Eve bottom forming.
TD indicator (not shown on chart) has this candle as a "9"
...Stoch crossing, MACD close to crossing:
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Price went a bit lower, but mostly just from a lag in keeping up with bitcoin (as all alts have been doing). In my experience that is usually a sign that its only a matter of time before that changes. I don't like the way the weekly candle looks at the moment, but plenty of time before it closes and price is coming into some support here from the 50 EMA on the daily. .618 fib also in this general area. It can flash lower to touch the purple falling wedge line as well. But lets see if this reverses by the end of the day to make a nice reversal candle on the daily chart, and keep the weekly candle looking healthy:
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Eh not exactly what I wanted to see from the weekly close. But this downtrend does look to be getting exhausted on the daily chart. I still think it should bounce over the next day or two, then we find out if the bulls will really show up: If i'm completely wrong we could go all the way to the .786 in some panic selling capitulation, but would need to break the 1.414 fib extension first. Seems unlikely.
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Just kissed the 1.414 fib extension. Bounce comes now or never...I say now.
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Look at Stoch RSI on XMR/USD from 30m chart to 2h chart to 4h chart to 1d chart...all oversold. Tough to see this lasting long, still expecting a mega bounce. Could be wrong of course : )
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LOL oh well, can't be perfect in trading. Some people like to sell at the very end of a downtrend trend for some reason...I don't get it. Oh well, just hodl. Thought experiment, as the chart stands, you can either long or short which would you choose? Whats the better risk return? I would not want to short this with a 10 foot pole
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welcome back buyers : )
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Falling wedge on the daily XMR/USD chart, wave 5 on the way? invst.ly/5ei7n
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1h chart...bear pennant or W bottom trend reversal? I'm sticking with trend reversal.
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Looking great, soon all that panic selling should turn into panic buying : )
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bullish ascending triangle
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Also, not that this really matters in hindsight but I think this is the correct count:
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Price fell out of ascending triangle as all other alts broke their rising wedges, as bitcoin broke $5000 and popped everyones stops. Did make a new low, but on very low volume (bullish divergence). Decent chance that was all the low we get depending on whether or not the FOMO kicks in on bitcoin here.
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All alts getting destroyed as btc takes off, *could be going to the 0.786 around .016
Great spot for a reversal. Yes i'm still very bullish, XMR/USD looks good to get going soon and catch up.
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I feel very confident this will reverse at some point between now and 0. For sure!
: ) have a sense of humor
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If you can't maybe you're trading too much.
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Come on Monero, you can do it!
In all seriousness this looks like a good time to turn things around just objectively looking at the technicals. Of course I could be wrong, but its fairly easy to say I would rather be long this chart than short it.
If it does continue to break down the next stop would be the purple ascending trendline.
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Looks like a bull flag forming, if this low holds watch out:
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Price in a channel now. Just seems like consolidation befor we go higher:
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Fell out of the channel, could go a bit lower, or not. I don't think bitcoin is done with its downtrend, and when it continues I expect XMR/BTC reverse. Still think the bottom is in and waiting for a big bounce.
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Price following doodle so far, but alts are getting destroyed in the bitcoin FOMO. Let's see how the rest of the day goes, if the daily candle closes poorly we are goign to the purple trendline of the ascending triangle. If not this can reverse from here. Stay tuned:
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RSI oversold on the 30m, 1h, 2h, 4h, and 1d.
2h chart (low volume selling): ...good chance for a reversal here. Weekly candle not looking well, so lets see if it improves by the end of the week.
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So far so good, and now this new lower low that was set yesterday has created even more bull divs on the daily chart (left side):
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Would be nice if we get something like this on the daily chart (inverse h + s pattern):
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So far so good, XMR/USD Stoch RSI is oversold on every time frame from the 30m chart up to the 1d chart...how long can that last?
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POP!
Seems more for real to me with XMR than the rest which may just be in dead cat bounces but well see.
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This is just a giant cup and handle on the weekly chart, sorry for the messyness guys but i'm too lazy to clean it up. (Bithumb FOMO took it a bit higher):
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Bearish divergence on the daily chart...so prob going down for a lower right shoulder than anticipated:
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Could even briefly make new lows depending on the lag between xmr usd and btc breaking out.
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Price broke down a little more as expected, looking good now, that might be all the down we get.
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bull divs on the 2h chart
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So far so good. Mini inverse head and shoulders pattern forming on the 1h chart:
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alts getting destroyed, thought xmr would be shining star : ( still bullish. Maybe something like this instead:
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If things get real bad there's also this next black trendline as the next level of support. *As long as this results a higher low, and not a full retrace, i'm still wildly bullish on xmr:
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Do or die time. Again, we don't want to see a full retrace, that would be similar to what we saw in litecoin a few weeks back that got me bearish on it. But I think it will bounce let's see:
Market about to make its decision here, again if full retrace then I have to turn bearish, but it could still bounce:
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such bounce much wow! : )
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Even more confirmation when we break back above the purple ascending line but this looks like bounce time to me:
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Seems like pretty good risk reward at these prices...if you bought in around .02 and doubled down now...your average would be around .015. I think we are going much higher. The downside risk is if we make new lows. If that were to happen then its probably time to get bearish on xmr like the rest of the alts.
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pamp it!
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What a pump! love it. Overall looking great, but showing some bearish divergence here on the 4h chart, seems like time for a nice pull back before we really get going:
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Eh, that drop could be all. Tough to say, either way we're going higher eventually : )
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Bitcoin looks like its ready to resuem the bull. So we may finally get this pull back:
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Target reached. Segwit2X cancellation amazing for alts. That's probably all the down we get:
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4h chart showing some bear divs, might be time for another pull back before going hgiher:
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Such moon, much wow, might get that nice pull back now. But overall this rally just getting started IMO:
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Possible alternative count (my a and b could be 3 and 4 of an extended wave 5):
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Ya I think the second one makes more sense. Here is the 4h view, cleaned up a bit:
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Its possible that's it for wave 2:
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*if the symmetrical triangle breaks down...can still go a bit lower:
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phew broke up. Looking good.
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Just mapping this out a bit, could get somethign like this (wild guess at this poitn of course):
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Price at around .017 or so..if it doesn't reverse here (still can) then maybe its a big W-X-Y pattern for wave 2 (which would allow for us to go lower). As opposed to the 1-2 and then 1-2 as last updated. But well see how it goes. Final destination is the same in my book (moon), so not really trading this.
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In other words, *if support breaks here, could be looking at somethinglike this:
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Support held so far, looking good. But still need to break the .382 fib. Seems like whichever breaks first the .382 or .5 will determine the next short term move (yellow box):
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Looking great:
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Not hugely important, but based on the zoomed in view I think we just finished some type of complex correction—a W-X-Y with Y being an ABCDE triangle. So that would change the daily projection a tiny bit. Of course this is all just a loose road map : )
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Just making wave 4 on the daily short and shallow as (if this count is correct) wave 2 was long and deep according the the law of alternation principle. Again--very loose projections but good to map it out and evolve accordingly:
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Since we went a bit lower have to assume this was all just a complicated drawn out wave 2 (again EW is just a guide, don't get too caught up in the nitty gritty):
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1d chart--MACD has crossed, StochRSI and RSI are pointing up. Houston, prepare for liftoff:
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Bitcoin ruining the party for alts ;(
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chance 165 or so could reverse it but wouldnt count on it at this rate.
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2h chart on US$ showing signs of another big leg up (if so ratio should pop as well):
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Looking great so far! Another squeeze on the 2h usd chart:
Really tough to call. I'm more bullish now tbh. Think the longs had to get clubbed a little. BTC has become the a weapon of mass alt destruction on Bitmex
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@jbmack, bounced nicely at .0165...so far so good.
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@btc_joe, and usd chart in good shape
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@jbmack, do you set a usd target to match the .05 wave 3 target?
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@jbmack, ya, honestly this could go either way right now. Well see
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@btc_joe, should know soon:) like the odds right now
XMR/USD looking great. 1d bout to have bullish entry signal on clouds. Lower time frames already bullish.
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@the_hitman, agreed, love your charts. Especially good to get the ichimoku perspective as thats probably one of the few forms of TA I am most ignorant in : ) Thanks for sharing.