First, we disregard the first major rally and consider it was smart money getting into the market.
Second, the rally beginning shortly after the start of the smart money entry point, started Dec 12th and ended Jan 4th for an increase of +384%.
The of the last 10 days has been heavy with selling, however, the prices have really not fallen much. This tells us that the price of Ripple seems to be on pretty solid footing. Compare it to the high buy for the 30 days prior and the price increased significantly.
Considering the second rally of +384% for the All Time High ( ATH ), we see that the levels show we are just touching on the -61% fib retracement line at the current levels. This is generally the end of the consolidation period after a rally, meaning we are due for the beginning of upward movement again. This is a very common occurrence in the crypto markets.
If new money comes in and our volumes are similar to the prior rally, it's very likely we'll follow a similar course of growth with the +384% target of $8.89 (down from my prior target of $9.90 before CMC removed Korean exchanges from their market cap calculations).
Also, the is something I drew before analysis today. I figured in the 3 key points, first high and current lowest low. The interesting part here is that that actually comes in very close to my estimated target for the upcoming +384% rally to $8.89.
I've heard no major news or new rumors yet about Ripple, Tron, nor Verge, so I'm not sure when these coins will start this rally, I can only guess it could be very soon, possibly within the next few days or so.
I think the markets have bled enough for this period and we should see things bounce back up here shortly. However, if they don't, then it could be a sign of a new long term downtrend like I experienced in the Bitcoin market in 2014. As a new trader then, it was difficult for me to believe that Bitcoin was in a downtrend after we hit the ATH of $1100 just a couple months before, so I always return to that thought and keep in mind that there will be a reversal at some point that will lead to a long term downtrend or winding down period, but I don't believe we are there just yet. I think we're actually on the early end of the upswing, similar to the time when I made my first investment in Bitcoin when its value was at $100. I still think Bitcoin could go to 10x its current value before we see a trend reversal, but only time will tell for sure.
Ichimoku 1d chart shows me the likely path we will take to that target.
I love your comments.