Key takeaways XRP has begun a new market cycle and, with a moderate confidence, we can expect XRP to reach a new ATH at some point this cycle. Last cycle followed an EW leading diagonal pattern and was probably a cycle wave 1. Currently, we should expect XRP to take on a more typical EW structure until otherwise indicated.
Market cycle psychology (MCP) and Wyckoff analysis reveal XRP’s phases of accumulation (purple shaded regions) and distribution (pink shaded region). Wyckoff distribution approximately coincides with MCP’s phases of capitulation and anger.
MCP reveals XRP has ended depression phase which is shaded grey. Regions shaded blue each represent the phase directly preceding a long-term uptrend.
Elliott Wave (EW) analysis helps to identify where trends, both up and down, end and start. Based on EW, last cycle’s price followed a 5-count leading diagonal wave pattern. This means that, to some degree, each primary wave comprises one or more smaller waves having an abc-like structure.
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A great visualization of “the psychological pitfalls of a market cycle” hosted by Visual Capitalist can be found at link below. It is better than the famous “Wall St. cheat sheet” visualization in my opinion. Comparing my chart to this visualization, XRP has probably entered Uncertainty.
I think XRPUSD is currently in an accumulation phase. First chart: My take on the 2017 accumulation. Second chart: My take on the 2018 reaccumulation. Third chart: My take on the possible current accumulation.
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To further qualify my thought, looks like a bullish/reversal triangle finished and both trend lines were tested.
@tradetraderson, bluff or not I don’t think it’s significant enough to affect anything. Who cares if it moves to London or Japan. What does it really matter? But, personally, no I doubt it’ll actually relocate. Maybe it’ll turn out they open a second HQ somewhere.
VincePrince
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Good idea, I see it similar.
Gaengphed
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So we have to postpone our Lambo-orders??? :-/
Teklologist
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@Gaengphed, lol no don’t cancel them just yet. I think the new short-to-mid term targets (see chart below) are similar to targets based on the other analysis. Although I failed to identify the market cycles in the other analysis, I think I correctly identified the waves in this new cycle. However the waves, waves 1 thru 3, appear to be yet another leading diagonal. If true, I’m uncertain what the implications would be given last cycle was a leading diagonal. Possibly, a very long leading diagonal wave 1 is unfolding?
Gaengphed
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@Teklologist, A ha, so instead of spike-sleep-spike-sleep-spike now we might see a slow burn ride up you mean for Wave 1.
This means we will have more time to accumulate. I'm ok...I'll ask the dealer to put them in back-order then :-)
Thanks for the update and have a good weekend!
Teklologist
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@Gaengphed, actually means it could continue a slow burning “spike-sleep” cycle, I think some ppl call it chop. It can destroy traders who over buy using too much leverage or margin and, because of transaction/exchange fees, traders who don’t use leverage or margin can nonetheless suffer losses by playing cat-and-mouse with price.
That said, I remain hopeful for a solid gain to lockdown my position.
Gaengphed
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@Teklologist, thanks for your reply!
I'm not using leverage, too noob for that. I'l just buy and hold until we are at 40-50% of BTC's run to its ATH. Then it is just popcorn time :-)