I have noticed that among those tons of tons of XRP charts on TradingView there is a lack of charts showing long term, width view analysis. There are also a few charts that are trying to look on longer term or to search some fractals but in my opinion most of them are simply wrong. That's why I'm sharing my chart with you. What I'm doing here is searching long term trend, long term fractals and trying to extrapolate them into the future. Straight to the line - lets analyse this chart.
First of all you probably noticed that chart is in logarithmic scale - that's because in my opinion its best scale to analyse long term movements with big amplitude and dynamic such as we can see on crypto market. Now pleas look on channel and sub-channels market with lines from Ca1 to Ca7. Please notice how strong influence on price actions they have even during this long period of consolidation in the middle. Why this is so important? Because it seems that those channel lines are still valid and still have strong influence on price.
Going next you can see that I have marked four biggest price jumps with rectangles marked from R1 do R4. Oh well... true is that for now there are only three jumps but with this we are coming to best thing on this chart - price prediction based on fractal which, till now, is completing in 100%.
First wave marked with rectangle R1 started from Ca7 channel line than hit Ca3 channel line with price gain of 1234% than retraced to Ca5 channel line with retracement 64% which is close to 61% fibonacci. Than it consolidate between fib 50% and fib 61%. Now look on rectangle R3. Do it look familiar? As in rectangle R1 we have started from Ca7 hit Ca3 gaining 1557% and retraced to Ca5. For now we are inside consolidation between 50% adn 61% fibonacci.
Ok, so what's next? Of course it is speculation based on history and that's why it can't be sure but i think we are waiting for second wave of two in fractal. We'll probably see next jump which will hit Ca1 channel line in the end. I will not analyse it step by step but pleas just look on channels, ellot waves (market in both cases by 1, 2, 3, 4, 5) and trend angles marked as T1-T4 and sustainability of each of the move.
If this prediction is right we might hit about $6.5 on end of the month than quick retrace to about $4 and at last jump to about $14 to the and of February which will complete second wave jump of 1530%. Do it sound fantastic? Maybe - but this fantasy just happened before.
* This is not financial advice.
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I've just noticed that chart view is broken on mobile devices (it's cut on left side). Pleas consider reading it on big screen.
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Of course, as I was suspecting, some of you wrote about ENORMOUS market cap when XRP will reach $14. So pleas understand that market cap is only statistical value counted as price * supply. It has nothing to real money pumped into market. Price is speculative only. Let me explain on simple example. So If there will be only one seller and only one buyer on market and both of them agree to buy only one XRP with price $14 (so pump it in the system) - the market price of XRP will be $14. Money pumped in the system != market cap.
Market cap is mainly psychological barrier but if BTC reach new levels (and after correction it will) XRP can easily follow.
I will be updating this analysis if something worth noticing will happen.
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Hi. Little update on situation we have. So Last days XRP was sliding on Ca5 channel line which was quite similar to situation we had on April 2017. Yesterday happened two things worth noticing. First - we broke short term descending line. Second - rebound from T3 trend angle line, and/or fibonaccin 61% retracement line.
So - what next? I'm optimistic but still can see a lot of uncertainty on market. Apart from that we still can see XRP reaching Ca4 channel line in few days but it depends slightly of how BTC will go. Correlation between those cryptos are weak but during uncertainty on market might be noticeable.
Generally speaking my mine prediction is still valid but might take a little bit longer to reach our targets.
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And one more thing. Pleas notice that first signs of reversal appeared exactly in predicted moment - after 24 days from ATH (as in April 2017).
do you even marketcap brooo? 14$= almost 700 Billion???
KapitanRatarak
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@saamq, Market cap is only price*supply so I don't think it's a problem. It's only statistical number and don't have nothing to real money pumped in the market. Most of people don't realise it.
Agrotrader01
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I totally disagree because there's a bearish term in all cryptos at the moment.
KapitanRatarak
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@viciasativa78, So that's mostly matter of time. All is about reaching bottom by BTC (about 8k) and pump again.
Agrotrader01
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@KapitanRatarak, That's true... when BTC Falls to 8k's Xrp can be around 0.63 - 0.75 so That means buyers will pump XRP.
KapitanRatarak
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@viciasativa78, That's not how it exactly works in my opinion. Correlation between XRP and BTC is lowest across all main cryptos and is 0.24 so is weak positive. On other words BTC reaching new lows does not mean XRP will reach new lows. Best example of this weak correlation was in December when BTC was dropping and XRP was reaching all time high. With rising BTC it will be easier for XRP to rise but its not strictly required. Dynamics of those two cryptos are different. I think XRP reached his low and is only "waiting" for BTC (so is in consolidation what we can probably see now).
DCFreak
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I think that Bitcoin will stay on the top (#1) when it comes to marketcap. So I doubt that ripple will exceed Bitcoin's marketcap.
DCFreak
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@DCFreak, so I would say 5-6$ is a max for ripple. Also IMO this will only happen if Coinbase adds Ripple.
dday1
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Ripple will most likely retrace to the R3 line(on your chart), pump and dump....The most annoying prediction for bulls. But in my experience this is what happens the majority of the time..
KapitanRatarak
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@dday1, Yes it's also possible. I do not claim I know the future - it's only history extrapolation. We'll see if this became true. But I find retracing to the almost bottom extremely unlikely.