I am new to trading and technical analysis. If I have made any mistakes - please let me know.
The chart is messy - I do apologize, but tried to put in as much information as possible to help me gauge an idea of what could possibly happen with Verge.
Verge initially was forming an ABCDE corrective pattern or triangle, however with the recent trend of Bitcoin - it seems very apparent that there is a lot of correlation between the majority of Altcoins and Bitcoin and that resulted in the ABCDE pattern to 'fail'.
I took a look at Verge from a different angle prior to the dip of Bitcoin, And that was the possibility of a double corrective pattern - starting with a flat corrective pattern (3-3-5) combining with another structure, either another flat, zigzag or triangle structure. It does appear to me that this could be either a zigzag or a falling wedge combination.
I have made some markings on the chart to indicate what could happen in the market - based on Elliott Wave theory. (again - if I have made a mistake - please let me know)
To explain it as much as possible:
- I have a fibonacci retracement of the complete set of 5 subwaves of a higher degree, possible retracement could be between the fibonacci levels of 0.618 and 0.784 levels. - I have labelled the WXY structure, and shows me that the WX of the WXY structure has been completed, with Y currently in progress. If Y is a falling wedge (triangular pattern) that will signal the end of the correction as WXY can only end in triangles. It will also signal the start of Wave 3 on a higher degree. - The corrective pattern leading up to the big blue letter W - shows a flat corrective pattern of 3-3-5 (as labelled) - Wave X is always a simple 3 subwave structure as labelled. - Wave Y is what I am currently keeping my eye on at the moment. Will need confirmation on whether it is a Zig Zag structure or a falling wedge structure. Only time will tell. - MACD shows bearish divergence on both the daily and weekly time frame. - Stoch RSI - shows that it has been in the bearish zone for a bit and not seeing any signs of it being bullish for a bit.
I am no financial advisor, and legal mumbo jumbo inserted here, please do your own due diligence.
I've learnt something new recently, that trading is a game of probability ... not a game of certainty. Rather be flexible and open to probabilities (as in the case with Bitcoin's recent trend) than be stubborn. Which is why I hope I can learn from others via tradingview.
I see it as we are in a A,B,C correction. Currently in the C wave, looking to see if we break 570 resistance, if so it could fall to the lower support line around 410 before rebounding. I have laddered buy orders in starting from 575-->410.
warrenct
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@shafinkalyan, Thanks, I was actually looking at it again earlier today and haven't had time to update this post (trying to figure that part out). But was quite busy today. But I was also seeing an ABC correction (not WXY) earlier as well. And as you've mentioned - it could retrace much more than initially analyzing it yesterday. I will have a look at the support and resistance levels again. Laddering buy orders is the way to go. Thanks
espenespen
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Great TA, thank you for your comprehensive point of view. Keep up the good work.
warrenct
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@espenespen, Thanks. I will try and post an update as I was looking at it again this morning (mentioned above). Will try as soon as I have the chance to - been a crazy day.