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Latam FX falls as strong U.S. jobs data revives hawkish Fed fears

Những điểm chính:
  • Mexican peso leads declines among Latam FX
  • Peru Congress backs motion to start impeaching Castillo
  • S.African rand up as Ramaphosa resignation plans denied

Latin American currencies fell on Friday after a stronger-than-expected reading on U.S. employment raised concerns about a hawkish Federal Reserve, while South Africa's rand rebounded a day after rumors of President Cyril Ramaphosa resigning shook markets.

Mexico's peso USDMXN dipped 1.5% against the dollar, leading declines among central and south American currencies as prices of its top export oil dropped ahead of an OPEC+ meeting on Sunday and EU ban on Russian crude on Monday.

J.P. Morgan said it does not expect a recession in Mexico in 2023 as resilient domestic demand should help offset the negative impact from a "mild U.S. recession" until the end of next year.

Fears of a U.S. slowdown has picked up pace recently due to aggressive monetary policy tightening adopted by the Fed to tame inflation, which recently has showed signs of moderating.

Data earlier in the day showed that U.S. employers added more jobs than expected in November and raised wages, potentially giving the U.S. central bank more reason to hike interest rates.

"Today's wage growth strength kind of runs in the face of some of the recent improving inflation data that we have been seeing. This doesn't make a trend, but it clearly has caught the market and probably the Fed's attention," said Ryan Detrick, chief markets strategist at the Carson Group.

"The Fed could be a tad more aggressive with their rate hikes in the near term."

The Chilean peso USDCLP shed 0.4%, while Brazil's real USDBRL was down 0.6%.

Brazil's President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's aide said on Friday the transitional government hopes to obtain Congress approval for a minimum 150 billion reais ($29 billion) waiver from the constitutional spending cap to meet campaign promises.

Concerns about the waiver proposal had rattled Brazilian assets last month, with economists warning it could push public debt to record levels and force the central bank to resume interest hikes after it paused an aggressive monetary cycle to tame inflation.

Latin American currencies (.MILA00000CUS) were set to end their second straight week higher, while the region's stocks index (.MILA00000PUS) was set to snap a three-week losing streak.

Optimism over a downshift in aggressive monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve and that China will gradually reopen its economy have bode well for riskier emerging market assets.

South Africa's rand USDZAR rose 1.1%, after falling some 4% in the last two days. Ruling party officials failed to reach a conclusion over whether Ramaphosa should stay in power after an inquiry found evidence of misconduct.

The Peruvian sol USDPEN slipped 0.2% after its Congress approved a motion initiated by opposition lawmakers to start impeachment proceedings against President Pedro Castillo.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 2010 GMT:

Stock indexes

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets EEFS

974.66

-0.37

MSCI LatAm (.MILA00000PUS)

2230.55

-0.26

Brazil Bovespa IBOV

112224.76

1.17

Mexico IPC ME

51257.91

-0.39

Chile IPSA SP_IPSA

5290.76

0.3

Argentina MerVal IMV

169600.61

-0.588

Colombia COLCAP (.COLCAP)

1239.28

0.31

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real (BRBY)

5.2165

-0.07

Mexico peso USDMXN

19.4232

-1.55

Chile peso USDCLP

881.9

-0.32

Colombia peso USDCOP

4768.6

-0.19

Peru sol USDPEN

3.8259

-0.25

Argentina peso (interbank) USDARS

168.0800

-0.20

Argentina peso (parallel) (ARSB=)

308

1.62

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