Long term MA-Trailing-Stop strategy with Adjustable Signal Strength to beat Buy&Hold strategy
None of the strategies that I tested can beat the long term Buy&Hold strategy. That's the reason why I wrote this strategy. Purpose: beat Buy&Hold strategy with around 10 trades. 100% capitalize sold trade into new trade.
My buy strategy is triggered by the fast buy EMA (blue) crossing over the slow buy SMA curve (orange) and the fast buy EMA has a certain up strength.
My sell strategy is triggered by either one of these conditions:
the EMA(6) of the close value is crossing under the trailing stop value (green) or
the fast sell EMA (navy) is crossing under the slow sell SMA curve (red) and the fast sell EMA has a certain down strength.
The trailing stop value (green) is set to a multiple of the ATR(15) value. ATR(15) is the SMA(15) value of the difference between the high and low values.
The scripts shows a lot of graphical information:
The close value is shown in light-green. When the close value is lower then the buy value, the close value is shown in light-red. This way it is possible to evaluate the virtual losses during the trade.
the trailing stop value is shown in dark-green. When the sell value is lower then the buy value, the last color of the trade will be red (best viewed when zoomed)(in the example, there are 2 trades that end in gain and 2 in loss (red line at end))
the EMA and SMA values for both buy and sell signals are shown as a line
the buy and sell(close) signals are labeled in blue
How to use this strategy? Every stock has it's own "DNA", so first thing to do is tune the right parameters to get the best strategy values voor EMA , SMA, Strength for both buy and sell and the Trailing Stop (#ATR). Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values Percent Profitable and Net Profit (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters) Then keep using these parameters for future buy/sell signals only for that particular stock. Do the same for other stocks. Important: optimizing these parameters is no guarantee for future winning trades!
Here are the parameters:
Fast EMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 10-20)
Slow SMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 30-100)
Minimum Buy Strength: minimum upward trend value of the Fast SMA Buy value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120)
Fast EMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 10-20)
Slow SMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 30-100)
Minimum Sell Strength: minimum downward trend value of the Fast SMA Sell value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120)
Trailing Stop (#ATR): the trailing stop value as a multiple of the ATR(15) value (use values between 2-20)
Example parameters for different stocks (Start capital: 1000, Order=100% of equity, Period 1/1/2005 to now) compared to the Buy&Hold Strategy(=do nothing):
What is your experience with forward testing results with the same parameters set?
XPl0RR
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I want to correct my previous comment about "repainting".
Since I only recently discovered what people mean by "repainting", I have to say that this script DOES NOT REPAINT.
For those who don't know what repaint means in this context.
There are some scripts on this site like the ANN scripts and derivatives who promise 100% profit.
When you look at the results, you start to believe it is, until you look at the script=code.
Scripts like ANN and others cheat by "looking into the future".
ANN scripts use close values of the end of the day. Since these values are not known before the end of the day, you cannot use these scripts for intra-day trading using periods smaller than one day.
This is called "repainting".
My script does not rely on values in the future. It is meant for inter-day trading (smallest atom is 1 day), although you could tune it's parameters to be used for intra-day trading, since it uses the values of the trading period, not the day-values as ANN does.
doka
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Useless, sorry to blantly state the truth. The resulting profit factor does not mean anything.
XPl0RR
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Does repaint. No weird things. :-)
For bitcoin you have to use these parameters:
You can see that the Net Profit is 3 times higher than the Buy&Hold Profit: 18586% vs 6345%
XPl0RR
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@XPl0RR, Also make sure to set the trading to 1D (1 day!). As mentioned, this strategy is not for intraday-trading, only for interday-trading (1 day is the atom).
Rsherman
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nevermind. My wifi was being weird. Does this thing repaint? or do weird other things
XPl0RR
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@Rsherman, You should change the "end-date"-parm to get correct repaint results