Brief Analysis——ARB

29 thg 12, 2023

In yesterday's analysis, we talked about the development advantages of Layer 2 and Optimism. Today we look at the current situation of Arbitrum, another Layer 2 leader, and ARB token.

When it comes to ARB, you can always think of the airdrop when Arbitrum logged into the mainnet in March this year. Many airdrop hunters have accumulated huge wealth through ARB. However, a large number of airdrops also suppressed the rise of ARB. Unlike Optimism, Arbitrum did not have whitelist restrictions on projects in the early period, making many native projects such as GMX and Radiant highly innovative and closer to C-end users. This can also be proven by the activity STIP launched by Arbitrum not long ago.

Before the launch of Op Stack, we believed that OP and ARB were highly comparable. But precisely because of the huge amount of airdrops, ARB encountered strong resistance. A good airdrop hunter is not necessarily a good investor. But after the launch of OP Stack, Arbitrum really fell behind Optimism. But it still has advantages compared to other blockchains. Its TVL currently ranks fourth among all block-chains, and its 24h volume ranks third. Stay ahead of the curve when it comes to user experience.

Back to technical analysis. Both Layer 2 and ETH experienced gains last weekend. However, ARB did not break above April's high. And after the long green candle, there is a long period of fluctuation. This is a classic follower characteristic. We use three green ranges to distinguish different phase of ARB's rise. Whales were primarily involved in the second phase of the rise. The rise in the first and second phase is not obvious, but more like a wide range of fluctuations. Later, driven by the market, ARB began to rise in the third period, forming a major increase. During the rise, there were no whales. But during the subsequent fluctuations, we can see a significant increase in whales, which may be a sign of whales taking profits. Then ARB had a long upper pin-bar yesterday, and the bullish trend may be ended.



Switching to the 4h level, we can see that in the last wave of rise, there were not many blue bars representing whales. What followed was one-day-decline. Price are now near previous highs and a rebound is possible, but the uptrend may be coming to an end.

In summary, we believe that ARB has innovation and excellent customer experience, and is a token worth paying attention to. However, due to the large number of airdrops in the past, there may be a lot of trouble before breaking ATH. In the short term, destructive candles have appeared, followed by a period of correction or shock.

Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.

Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.