AUD/JPY rebound eyes 50-Day SMA
AUD/JPY appears to be on track to test the 50-Day SMA (90.60) after clearing last week’s high (89.69), but the positive relationship with the S&P 500 index continues to unravel despite the recovery in investor confidence.
The correlation coefficient has fallen to an insignificant reading of +0.16 as AUD/JPY trades less than 1% higher from the start of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained more than 7% during the same period. Swings in carry trade interest may continue to influence AUD/JPY as major central banks appear to be at or nearing the end of their hiking cycle, while a further improvement in risk appetite may keep the S&P 500 afloat.
AUD/JPY Rate Outlook
AUD/JPY appears to be carving a bullish outside day candle even though it struggles to extend the series of higher highs and lows from last week, with a break/close above 90.30 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) raising the scope for a run at the 50-Day SMA (90.60).
A move above the moving average opens up the 91.70 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) region, but failure to clear 90.30 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) may push AUD/JPY back below 89.60 (50% Fibonacci retracement) as the indicator continues to reflect a negative slope.
Next area of interest comes in around 88.60 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) followed by the 87.20 (50% Fibonacci extension) to 87.40 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) region.
--- Written by David Song, Strategist
Follow on DavidJSong
DavidJSong
The correlation coefficient has fallen to an insignificant reading of +0.16 as AUD/JPY trades less than 1% higher from the start of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained more than 7% during the same period. Swings in carry trade interest may continue to influence AUD/JPY as major central banks appear to be at or nearing the end of their hiking cycle, while a further improvement in risk appetite may keep the S&P 500 afloat.
AUD/JPY Rate Outlook
AUD/JPY appears to be carving a bullish outside day candle even though it struggles to extend the series of higher highs and lows from last week, with a break/close above 90.30 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) raising the scope for a run at the 50-Day SMA (90.60).
A move above the moving average opens up the 91.70 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) region, but failure to clear 90.30 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) may push AUD/JPY back below 89.60 (50% Fibonacci retracement) as the indicator continues to reflect a negative slope.
Next area of interest comes in around 88.60 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) followed by the 87.20 (50% Fibonacci extension) to 87.40 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) region.
--- Written by David Song, Strategist
Follow on DavidJSong
DavidJSong
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và ấn phẩm không có nghĩa là và không cấu thành, tài chính, đầu tư, kinh doanh, hoặc các loại lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị khác được cung cấp hoặc xác nhận bởi TradingView. Đọc thêm trong Điều khoản sử dụng.