AUD/JPY rebounds from 50-Day SMA after clearing March high
AUD/JPY cleared the March high (92.25) as it bounced back ahead of the April low (87.60), and the exchange rate may attempt to test the February high (93.05) as it rebounds from the 50-Day SMA (89.45).
AUD/JPY Rate Outlook
AUD/JPY bounces back ahead of the weekly low (90.93) while the S&P 500 index trades to a fresh weekly low (4116), and it seems as though the positive relationship is unraveling amid the decline in the correlation coefficient.
The correlation coefficient currently stands at a negligible reading of +0.46 after hitting a significant reading of +0.81 last month, but AUD/JPY may larger mirror the weakness in the S&P 500 index as it struggles to extend the series of higher highs and lows from the monthly low (89.17).
The failed attempts to close above the 91.70 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) area may push AUD/JPY back towards the 89.60 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to 90.30 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region, and the exchange rate may threaten the opening range for May if it struggles to hold above the 50-Day SMA (89.45).
At the same time, a close above the 91.70 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) area may spur another run at the February high (93.05), with the next area of interest coming in around the December 2022 high (93.80).
Additional Resources:
AUD/USD rate rally stalls ahead of April high
--- Written by David Song, Strategist
DavidJSong
AUD/JPY Rate Outlook
AUD/JPY bounces back ahead of the weekly low (90.93) while the S&P 500 index trades to a fresh weekly low (4116), and it seems as though the positive relationship is unraveling amid the decline in the correlation coefficient.
The correlation coefficient currently stands at a negligible reading of +0.46 after hitting a significant reading of +0.81 last month, but AUD/JPY may larger mirror the weakness in the S&P 500 index as it struggles to extend the series of higher highs and lows from the monthly low (89.17).
The failed attempts to close above the 91.70 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) area may push AUD/JPY back towards the 89.60 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to 90.30 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region, and the exchange rate may threaten the opening range for May if it struggles to hold above the 50-Day SMA (89.45).
At the same time, a close above the 91.70 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) area may spur another run at the February high (93.05), with the next area of interest coming in around the December 2022 high (93.80).
Additional Resources:
AUD/USD rate rally stalls ahead of April high
--- Written by David Song, Strategist
DavidJSong
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