AUDNZD (neutral to long) at a turning point?

11 thg 1, 2015

The (2nd) weekly candle of indecision and price stabilising between two significant levels suggests a turn could be coming. The deep test to 1.0350 (part of an inverse H&S on the 1 hour chart) and failure to close below the 2005 low further confirms this. That said, rejection and failure to hold above 1.05 tells us the market may need a period of further consolidation first. The world and his dog is likely looking at this trade, so when it moves, it could move quickly. Both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD closed the week strongly, albeit both at resistance, but the AUD has had the more negative sentiment, and thus greater ability to bounce. Regarding the NZD, it is worth noting that in September 2014 the RBNZ intervened to push down their currency with 521m and stated, "... at the level we’re at, [US]78 odd cents, we’re still at very high levels...", further stating it should be, "...[US]65 cents maybe, certainly ... lower..."

...and this for a bit of fun .. :)