A push lower on AU?
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis:
Following a retest at the underside of a resistance area drawn from 0.8409/0.8082 in early 2018, AUD/USD has been grinding lower, down nearly 1500 points since.
June 2018 witnessed a long-standing trend line support (1.4776) give way, followed by the 0.6827 January 2016 low in August 2019. This, technically speaking, suggests scope for further downside to 0.5986/0.6346, a long-term support zone.
Currently, the pair trades +0.42% on the month.
Daily timeframe:
Snapping a three-day winning streak, the Australian dollar retreated against its US counterpart Thursday, shedding 0.27% from the lower border of a resistance zone at 0.6770/0.6751.
In the event we continue to explore lower ground from here, support at 0.6670 is in the firing range. A move higher, on the other hand, could approach trendline support-turned resistance level (0.7393).
The RSI, for those who follow indicators, is seen emerging from oversold territory, though has so far failed to connect with the 50.0 value.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis:
After scoring a fresh lower low at 0.6662 late last week, breaking the previous swing low 0.6679, traders likely seek short sales on the correction, based on the H4 timeframe.
Trendline resistance (0.7031) elbowed its way into view Wednesday, with price action topping just south of the level in the shape of three successive bearish wicks.
Thursday saw a test of the said trendline take shape, formed by way of a strong bearish candle close. This could be enough to convince sellers, though the concern remains that price may want to bring in sellers from the neighbouring resistance area priced in at 0.6783/0.6769 (joined closely with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6765 and the 50.0% retracement at 0.6770) before turning lower.
H1 timeframe:
Based on shorter-term flows, buyers and sellers are battling for position within a range between a support zone at 0.6707/0.6715 and a resistance area coming in at 0.6750/0.6742. Also noteworthy is the 100-period SMA (0.6714) offering support.
Direction:
The fact we crossed paths with a daily resistance area at 0.6770/0.6751, connected with a H4 trendline resistance (0.7031) along with room to explore lower ground on the monthly timeframe, a breakout beyond the lower edge of the current H1 range is likely. Watch for a H1 close to form beyond 0.67. This helps identify seller intent and could be sufficient to drive back to daily support at 0.6670.
Monthly timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis:
Following a retest at the underside of a resistance area drawn from 0.8409/0.8082 in early 2018, AUD/USD has been grinding lower, down nearly 1500 points since.
June 2018 witnessed a long-standing trend line support (1.4776) give way, followed by the 0.6827 January 2016 low in August 2019. This, technically speaking, suggests scope for further downside to 0.5986/0.6346, a long-term support zone.
Currently, the pair trades +0.42% on the month.
Daily timeframe:
Snapping a three-day winning streak, the Australian dollar retreated against its US counterpart Thursday, shedding 0.27% from the lower border of a resistance zone at 0.6770/0.6751.
In the event we continue to explore lower ground from here, support at 0.6670 is in the firing range. A move higher, on the other hand, could approach trendline support-turned resistance level (0.7393).
The RSI, for those who follow indicators, is seen emerging from oversold territory, though has so far failed to connect with the 50.0 value.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis:
After scoring a fresh lower low at 0.6662 late last week, breaking the previous swing low 0.6679, traders likely seek short sales on the correction, based on the H4 timeframe.
Trendline resistance (0.7031) elbowed its way into view Wednesday, with price action topping just south of the level in the shape of three successive bearish wicks.
Thursday saw a test of the said trendline take shape, formed by way of a strong bearish candle close. This could be enough to convince sellers, though the concern remains that price may want to bring in sellers from the neighbouring resistance area priced in at 0.6783/0.6769 (joined closely with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6765 and the 50.0% retracement at 0.6770) before turning lower.
H1 timeframe:
Based on shorter-term flows, buyers and sellers are battling for position within a range between a support zone at 0.6707/0.6715 and a resistance area coming in at 0.6750/0.6742. Also noteworthy is the 100-period SMA (0.6714) offering support.
Direction:
The fact we crossed paths with a daily resistance area at 0.6770/0.6751, connected with a H4 trendline resistance (0.7031) along with room to explore lower ground on the monthly timeframe, a breakout beyond the lower edge of the current H1 range is likely. Watch for a H1 close to form beyond 0.67. This helps identify seller intent and could be sufficient to drive back to daily support at 0.6670.
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