H1 ascending triangle faces H4 supply!
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The recovery move, alongside April’s advance, has landed the unit within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Upbeat risk sentiment lifted AUD/USD Monday, breaking the April 14 high at 0.6444 and unmasking supply coming in from 0.6618/0.6544. It should also be emphasised that this area also comes with a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6578 and a nearby 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642. In addition, the RSI indicator is seen fast approaching its overbought level.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The harmonic Gartley formation, boasting a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433, remains a focal point on the H4 timeframe, despite Monday’s advance. Technicians will also note we recently connected with a supply zone seen at 0.6540/0.6464, an area that may help push price action back beneath 0.6433.
The next clear demand target on the H4 timeframe can be found at 0.6192/0.6247.
H1 timeframe:
Monday spent the majority of its session carving out what appears to be an ascending triangle formation, formed around the upper boundary of a supply area at 0.6461/0.6435, drawn from mid-March. The ascending triangle usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern. Therefore, a breakout higher could eventually see a run to 0.65.
The take-profit targets for ascending triangles are generally measured by taking the distance of the base and adding this value to the breakout point. Although it does not really offer much room to play with, the likelihood of 0.65 coming into play is still high.
Indicator-based traders may also want to pencil in bearish divergence out of overbought territory.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664 remains a point of interest to the upside, though in order to reach this far north traders must first contend with the noted daily resistances.
H4 supply at 0.6540/0.6464 resides a touch beneath daily supply at 0.6618/0.6544 and holds a connection to the current H4 harmonic Gartley pattern, therefore this base could hinder any upside moves out of the H1 ascending triangle formation. Should a downside breakout be seen out of the ascending triangle pattern, this would likely confirm seller strength out of H4 supply and possibly see further downside occur.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The recovery move, alongside April’s advance, has landed the unit within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Upbeat risk sentiment lifted AUD/USD Monday, breaking the April 14 high at 0.6444 and unmasking supply coming in from 0.6618/0.6544. It should also be emphasised that this area also comes with a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6578 and a nearby 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642. In addition, the RSI indicator is seen fast approaching its overbought level.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The harmonic Gartley formation, boasting a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433, remains a focal point on the H4 timeframe, despite Monday’s advance. Technicians will also note we recently connected with a supply zone seen at 0.6540/0.6464, an area that may help push price action back beneath 0.6433.
The next clear demand target on the H4 timeframe can be found at 0.6192/0.6247.
H1 timeframe:
Monday spent the majority of its session carving out what appears to be an ascending triangle formation, formed around the upper boundary of a supply area at 0.6461/0.6435, drawn from mid-March. The ascending triangle usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern. Therefore, a breakout higher could eventually see a run to 0.65.
The take-profit targets for ascending triangles are generally measured by taking the distance of the base and adding this value to the breakout point. Although it does not really offer much room to play with, the likelihood of 0.65 coming into play is still high.
Indicator-based traders may also want to pencil in bearish divergence out of overbought territory.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664 remains a point of interest to the upside, though in order to reach this far north traders must first contend with the noted daily resistances.
H4 supply at 0.6540/0.6464 resides a touch beneath daily supply at 0.6618/0.6544 and holds a connection to the current H4 harmonic Gartley pattern, therefore this base could hinder any upside moves out of the H1 ascending triangle formation. Should a downside breakout be seen out of the ascending triangle pattern, this would likely confirm seller strength out of H4 supply and possibly see further downside occur.
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