AUDUSD update

10 thg 3, 2016

For my previous post and context see link below:

I showed my projection by means of 4 steps and we saw the first step which makes this potential trade towards 0.80 even more likely. However we trade what we see and although I like to see a test of 0.73 to be next, the lower time frames should show us a clear entry. Keep in mind that the move higher was an impulse and I will only trade the correction if it presents itself the way I like it.

I will be looking for a minor impulse lower which we might have seen after the RBNZ rate decision last night. Now I like to see a consolidation and sell the continuation. It is important to wait for structure to unfold itself. This way we stay out of bad trades.

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10 thg 3, 2016

Ghi chú

Projection of at least 3 waves lower towards 0.73. Safest trade would be after the consolidation.

12 thg 3, 2016

Ghi chú

We did't see the consolidation followed by a bearish continuation yet. I understand harmonic patterns and know that they can work when using them properly, such a pattern might be ending in this zone for a possible reversal. However in my trading I demand a higher succesratio and a higher Risk/Reward. Therefore I only use them as indication and not for trading purposes. This is why I don't draw them or name them in my charts. The approach is the same as always, which might be conservative. I like to see an impulse of lesser degree lower (like a wave A or 1 of smaller degree), wait for the consolidation (wave B or 2) and sell the continuation lower. Although I see the AUDUSD at 0.80 soon I don't like to buy in this area because of the overextended structure we are seeing. Only a smaller time frame buy (1hr or lower) might present a last trend continuation trade. Fundamentally I like to see the correction in AUDUSD happening before FOMC later this week.

updates will follow