NIFTYBANK - "Pause" for a thought!

10 thg 4, 2023

MPC, chose to pause, hikes the growth prospects, continues to suggest the fight for inflation not over yet. It looks like a typical trader, view short, position long. Markets, lighten the position resulting in bond prices rising. Inflation is not going in a hurry. More so, it is not Monetary policy that will drive, it is the Liquidity and that too Velocity of Liquidity that is going to drive. That looks sharply to the downside. This resultant can keep the inflation alive and kicking. With 15% growth in assets, high single digit in deposit growth, the strain is slow. If at all inflation is transitory (the lower bound), it looks more so here. Let's wait and watch how sticky it is. Pause for all the thoughts. The Thursday Candle is interesting. Outside day, body wise engulfing. Large upside and downside wicks. An own-disown moves, or expiry moves. Twins still dictate the space and looks more to go there. Bulls safe above 40600 while attempts to be made to probe the congestion area of 41300-600. Shorter frames suggest, any move would be down move first than up-move even after factoring the expiry driven last one hour action. Supports 40600 any daily close below would question the rally, low probability though. For the day 40700-41300 should work.