INDEX WEEKLY UPDATE

10 thg 10, 2022

GLOBAL UPDATE
-DXY again back@113
-DOLLAR/INR is above 82.8 might open above 83
-watchout out for european bond market
-geopolitical situation is worsening
-crude oil price rising again after opec meet
-wall street trading near 52k-week low


THINGS TO WATCH THIS WEEK
-the week again we have "cpi" on thursday
-we have fed minutes on wednesday but will have less impact as we have cpi on thursday
-usa earning session is also here
-we have our earning session also kickstarting
-watchout for vix in usa market
-it has been seen in the past fed does not pivot until vix test 40
-we will have volatility globally

INDIAN MARKET UPDATE
-domestic ques remain strong
-but finally we are about to given in to the global market
-rising crude oil>rising dollar index>rising bond yields all this is major negative for financial stocks
-geopolitical situation is also not helping the markets
-good credit growth from indian banks@16.4% only positive for banking stock

NIFTY TECHNICAL UPDATE
-watch closely at 16800 levels now
-we might re-enter the trading zone of 17180-16830 again
-if we consolidate in this zone than its a confirmation market is factoring the worst
-it will be a good thing
-thursday cpi numbers will lead to a reaction on indian markets
-we have relative strength as of now
-we have seen nifty now form again lower high and lower low formation
-it has not formed completely it has yet to form its right shoulder
-pattern is more visible in banknifty
-wait and watch approach
-first let us see if market defends 16800

CRUCIAL LEVEL TO WATCH
SUPPORT
17050-16940-1680
RESISTANCE
17240-17350-17430


BANKNIFTY TECHNICAL UPDATE
-word of caution here
-in the channel i had informed i have some important update in banknifty
-in banknifty we are seeing a clear classical head and and shoulder pattern being formed
-the left shoulder and head is complete
-the right shoulder is on the verge of completion
-there are clear signs of pattern developing
-global situation can have adverse effect on the financial markets
-i expect pressure in banking stocks more than in any other sector till thursday
-if my analysis is right and we do break the neckline of 37700 and close there
-i am expecting retest of 32000-33000
-if the pattern breaks
-plus major banking stocks are giving confirmation of the pattern as well
-wait and watch approach pattern has yet to give a breakdown below neckline

CRUCIAL SUPPORT
38500-38200-37700
RESISTANCE
39000-39400-39750



"NEW SEGMENT OPTION DATA"
-banknifty pcr@0.88
-nifty pcr@0.97

banknifty oi scan (13th oct)

39000 PUT MAX OI+ MAX ADDITION
40000 CALL OPTION MAX OI
39000 CALL OPTION MAX ADDITION

based on data put writers will be in trouble
since it is monday
volume will kick in will need to see is there fresh oi addition in 38500 pe
if the max oi is added in 38500 pe then we might see some support near there(just a forecast)

nifty oi scan (13th oct)

17000 PE MAX OI+MAX ADDITION
17500 CE MAX OI+MAX ADDITION

based on data it remains to be seen if we defend 17000
followed by 17000 pe writers more strong writers are sitting@16800 pe
i firmly below 17300 ce will see addition writing as will act as a resistance for the day

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