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Refuting OPTICALARTdotCOM’s $14k Crash

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Find chart at the 3:53 juncture in his video entitled, Bitcoin crash next week! Kevin Svenson vs MMCrypto 3 peaks and domed house Bullh1t.

I’ve added ellipses to my chart to correlate the March 2020 dump to the current cycle. As you can see the predicted timing of the next major dump coincides which the ~$190 – 200k price projection by March/April 2022.

The above chart even has the 2.272 extensions on the recent moves which corroborate to the TechDev’s 2.272 to ~$190 – 200k.

All of TecDev’s 2.272 extensions and my Fib (log-scaled) ellipses have predicted every major peak for Bitcoin and even we have a repeat of the drop to the 1.414 that occurred in 2013 right before the massive rocket launch to the second peak:

EPIPHANY! Bitcoin to ~$200k by March/April 2022.

OPTICALARTdotCOM has fooled himself.

Note this move to 190k which complete Elliot wave 3 and since wave 2 into the March 2020 crash retraced more than 61.8% of wave 1 that peaked in summer 2019 at 13.9k which is a terminal impulse Elliot Wave invariant, thus there will be a flash crash after the second peak back down to below the top of wave 1 at 13.9k.

Thusly a parabolic move into end of Q1 2022 to $190+k, then a very sudden crash forming wave 4 down to perhaps fill that long-standing CME gap at 9.6k. Then the wave 5 will recover suddenly in late 2022 or into 2023 at a new ATH. This will be a rollercoast that will shock everyone. Nobody expects Bitcoin can go back below 20k and if it does they certainly won’t think it will suddenly rebound to 300k.

What will cause this posited flash crash in 2022?

1. ANYONECANSPEND donations to the miner attack on the ‘official’ (actually an impostor) Bitcoin Core (aka Blockstream or SegWit/Taproot) restoring the immutability of legacy Bitcoin?
2. USDT Tether bankruptcy?
3. New regulation making centralized stablecoins illegal?
4. World Economic Forum Cyberattacks?
5. Ethereum 2.0 snafu?
6. Omicron virus?
7. Fed taper accelerated and completed?

Bitcoin Price Scenarios Into Posited February 2022 Pi Cycle Top

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Comparing 2019–2020 to 2020–2022. Obviously the latter is a much larger structure and thus must be of a longer duration in time.

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C.f. also Altcoin Daily’s video *INSANE* MOVE IS NEAR! BIG CHANGE HAPPENING FOR BITCOIN RIGHT NOW!

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Regarding the eventual crash of wave 4 below , perhaps to fill that long-standing CME gap at 9.6k, listen from the 7:30 juncture to the video Gareth Soloway - Bitcoin Crash Is Coming And It'll Be Huge! on Moneycast’s channel.

Again I think wave 3 has to complete first with a move higher to a second peak ~190k.

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All metrics are indicating move higher include S&P500 earnings, extreme fear, put/call ratio, and long-term hodlers accumulation. We had a risk-off move with Treasuries spiking due to fear of a liquidity contagion while Fed accelerating QE taper. There could still be some downside in stock markets — although TBond interest rates appear to maybe have knee-jerk bottomed and ready for a breakout (i.e. risk-on) — if those fears have not played out entirely in the stock market, but my guess is that Bitcoin has already priced that in with the 41.6k low. Could possibly get a spike low to 45k before lift off. Charts at the following links. GoT’s stance is that economy is strong and risk-off is a miscalculation at least until QE taper has more time to accelerate.

imgur.com/a/yWTuah0

imgur.com/a/8G1HU2A

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Second peak of 2013 is repeating. Skip to 6:30 mark in Crypto Zombie’s video BITCOIN ALERT!!!!! WHALES ARE *F&%KING* WITH US!!!! MOTHER OF PUMPS INCOMING!?!

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FreeMoneyCrypto {12/12/21 8:44 PM}
{In reply to Shelby Moore}
in case they push the dump
im looking at placing limit orders at the 38-43k range for the wicks. u think this is good ?

Shelby Moore, {12/12/21 9:26 PM}
{In reply to FreeMoneyCrypto FreeMoneyCrypto}
Anyone’s guess is as good as mine. I don’t have any data other than what I have shared. I personally don’t believe there will be a wick below again. But if the stock market has another leg down, then anything is possible.

That 1.414 log-scaled Fib extension level at 41.6k (TechDev’s measurement methodology) was the bottom in 2013. I am looking for that to hold again as the slingshot to the posited second ~190k peak incoming.

Shelby Moore, {12/12/21 9:31 PM}

Anthony Pompliano’s (aka ‘Pomp’) video Why The Past Two Weeks Were Hell For Bitcoin: Will Clemente. Postmortem on the low liquidity event Friday flash crash. Open interest was overleveraged, institutions were squaring their books for year end closing and bid/ask volume dried up on a Friday evening. The BTCSHORTS had piled up a huge position and the manipulators took full advantage of the situation. This appears to be a reset of the bull market ready to go higher. Institutions will re-allocate funds in the New Year, and we are likely to get a Santa Claus rally.

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Watch the long version of that Will Clemente interview Pomp & Will Clemente: WTF Is Going On W/Bitcoin: Full Interview. Charts past the 8 min mark will confirm my stance in this idea. Downside is limited and appear to be repeating the Sept 2020 retest before moving higher.

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BTCSHORTS creeping upwards.

Still a possible bearish H&S on Bitcoin with a possible breakdown from the neckline on Monday night to any one of the possible support lines (they don’t often reach their full downside target):

Premarket for stocks are up, so markets may open up so thus the reason we have a Sunday Bitcoin bounce, but a lot of data coming Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, including a consumer inflation expectations report on Monday and the PPI on Tuesday morning. Quite possible for the markets to get slightly freaked out one more time and backfill those recent gaps on the S&P and Nasdaq.

cnbc.com/2021/12/10/fed-is-expected-to-speed-up-end-of-bond-buying-and-signal-interest-rate-hikes-are-coming.html

ft.com/content/cc7b13c9-41a6-4049-a742-3709346a98de

actionforex.com/action-insight/market-overview/419883-markets-quiet-ahead-of-fed-ecb-boe-snb-boj-and-lots-of-data/

fxstreet.com/analysis/dxy-dips-into-key-central-bank-policy-meets-this-week-202112130218

The US releases its November Consumer Inflation Expectations (no forecasts, previous was 5.7% - ACY Finlogix). The UK releases its Financial Stability report (4 am Sydney, 14 December).

Trading Perspective: The week ahead is the last full trading week in December before the markets thin out into the Christmas holidays. It’s huge in terms of economic data from Europe, the UK, China, Canada, and the US. The Swiss National Bank, The Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the US Federal Reserve hold key policy meetings this week which are followed by respective press conferences. For today expect consolidation with more position adjustments in FX.

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BTCSHORTS suddenly skyrockets. Warning Bitcoin likely going for another leg down but again I don’t think a lower low:

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Clearly a bearish H&S pattern, but we have a throwback which often reduces the severity or probability to the downside. Amazingly it wicked down to the long-term support lines I had diagrammed beforehand.

Will Nasdaq fill the rest of that gap tomorrow?

I think so, because the Nasdaq to S&P ratio probably will at least retest channel support:

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I believe Bitcoin will come down one final time to 46.5k with a wick to by this weekend to mimic its pattern from the May to July Wycoff correction and accumulation pattern. Possibly 45k or slightly below but I doubt it. Could go up from here and breakout of the wedge but seems too far from the wedge apex end, so too soon and needs to go down again first.

We have what appears to be a repeating pattern as to Dec 8:

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In terms of proportionality to the analogous slingshot correction in 2013, the breakout to the upside is between Friday to Monday. So the final bottom could be behind us or over the weekend.

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Note MMCrypto has targets as high as 50k for this bounce:

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Looks like we have a partial bullish reversal RSI on 2 hour (but not yet on 4 hour).

I did buy that dip to 46.7k earlier today. I am conflicted on whether to sell this spike. I do think it might gradually slide down again to the test the bottom of the wedge (on my chart) one more time over the weekend. We may get one more chance at ~, but I can’t say that with complete confidence.

Thus I suggest adding to positions on any more dips. But I do not suggest selling this spike.

The Fed has release their plans and they are inline with expectations. So pedal to the metal, we are ready for liftoff into February/March for a ~190k peak.

All on board before the rocket leaves the launchpad.

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Note that spike has broken above the 4 hourly ribbons that MMCrypto and TheMoon emphasize. If we can hold a 4 hourly above the 4 hour ribbons then bottom is history.

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As expected didn’t close above the top of the 4 hourly EMA ribbons, although we’re only 1.5 hours into the new candle which is green so far.

My expectation is will come down again as it did after the second attempt to close atop 4-hourly EMA ribbons in late September.

There was that final decline in July also, but note the daily (perhaps 12-hourly) EMA ribbons were the demarcation:

Note on the daily the current pattern might be W pattern that will not decline again, or if we paint the wicks it could be a declining flag with a 45k wick low possible:

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Will have a breakdown or out/up with an hour or two max:

Been bouncing off the top of the 15-minute EMA ribbons this entire bounce from 46.7k. If breakdown then to the bottom of the uptrend line which is also the bottom of the 15-minute EMA ribbons. If that holds, we like have a breakout back through the apex up of symmetric triangle in which case headed up towards ~50k. If breakout from here then target is ~50k also.

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We’re down in my multiple trend lines of confluence. Will it hold as a bottom?

Note I am buying here after selling that recent spike to $49+k. (Ended up selling it)

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Shelby Moore, {12/21/21 7:46 PM}
Quick look is that Bitcoin has broken out and it may backfill to 47.7k before rocketing up.

Shelby Moore, {12/21/21 7:59 PM}
{In reply to Shelby Moore}
However look at the thick red trend line channel top I added for May/Jun 2021.

That warns we could see a false breakout and crash to a lower-low before the real breakout.

Shelby Moore, {12/22/21 5:01 AM}
{In reply to Shelby Moore}
Yep likely coming back down to ~$47.7 – 48k for the final retest before rockets. See the repeating pattern. Worst case I guess ~46.7k.

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Structure has changed from lower-lows to higher-lows. So this incoming pullback is the last one before rockets.

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ounced exactly as I charted. Continue down to my lower targets?

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Forming a bearish H&S. Likely coming back down to my first target:

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Hidden bullish divergence on the 4 hourly if bottom here:

I.e. lower-low on the RSI but higher-low on price.

Fear is somewhat extreme now. Due for dead-cat bounce.

Slightly also on the daily but there’s an outlier, so likely coming back down one more time after a bounce over the next week or two.

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Clearly the hidden bullish RSI divergence has now turned into a non-hidden bullish divergence:

And also appears to be a bullish inverse H&S with a target of ~49.8k:

The divergences have been predicting every top and bottom this entire year!!!

MMCrypto and TheMoon got so busy on their respective shitcoin launches they stopped even recognizing these! Even Eric Krown Crypto is not discussing this.

Price needs to push up into the daily EMA ribbons as it did before for the corresponding pattern in late June. Before declining again to the final bottom. Which is also necessary to lift the RSI high enough that the final bottom will be a bullish divergence.

I MUST DO MY OWN T/A.

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Here’s what I expect. Note the proportional timing to the March–July pattern has been measured 4 different ways. Which provides a target final bottom date of Jan 7 – 18 and final bottom prices $42.5 – 41k, with a stoploss 40.5k or if you want to be more wary of not getting stopped out by a wick then 39.8k. The later the bottom, the lower the possible price thus the range $42.5 – 41k.

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So that inverse H&S continuation failed obviously, but I have been hodling long because I noticed a first bullish divergence on Dec 31, and now we have a second one. Thus Bitcoin is threatening to break above that red neckline and hit ~50k. There’s now a sort of a W pattern as well. And the altcoins are reacting with DOT leading the way of my holdings already hitting the upside expectations I had for the bounce.

After this significant bounce I think Bitcoin is probably coming back down one more time to test some scary final capitulation lows, but is not clear to me if altcoins will retest December lows although they will correct some if Bitcoin threatens a lower-low.

ADD: note the purple line there is a potential bullish W pattern forming if the bounce continues to and breaks out then the target would be 58k. But the right side of the potential W pattern is not matched in duration to the left side if it breaks out now. Thus maybe instead this posited breakout from neckline will fail and Bitcoin continue lower until my Jan 7+ target. The way I am playing this is to take some profits on extreme moves up (e.g. thus far on this bounce sold some DOT), but otherwise hodling. On a move down I reaccumulate. Because I think any significant bounces right now are premature.

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I don't link to Youtube videos because every time I do that Tradingview puts me in the penalty jail for 24 hours and threatens to ban me from the site.

So in the following comments I am referring to the charts in the video entitled Bitcoin Why You Shouldn't Expect $60,000 Price In January 2022. by youtuber Eric Krown Crypto. Note I am not promoting him. I just have no other way to insert his charts here.

Here is my commentary…

Leverage is high, open interest is ahead of price, thus likely retest of ~ incoming before bull market resumes.

Bitcoin Dominance (over altcoins) could possibly bounce before breaking the horizontal support to all-time-lows? So far on this decline retail has been buying altcoins expecting them to rally while Bitcoin is sideways. What if Bitcoin skyrockets out of the incoming slingshot low as it did in late 2013? Or Bitcoin threatens 40k maybe a short-lived BTC.D rally as was the case from Dec 9 – 14. Altcoins may still make another leg down to a lower low for this correction.

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Refer to Game of Trades' latest video SMART Money Is LEAVING Bitcoin AGAIN... | Will It Trigger Another Crash?.

My comments on what video…

Retail Bitcoin interest at all-time-lows, thus massive buying opportunity. When Bitcoin price makes new ATH, retail floods back to buy the next top. Note retail interest in Bitcoin is waning as it moves to altcoins and -million transactions are rising on Bitcoin.

Recent spike in long-term hodler often not only signals a possible short-term further correction, it also is a correction that ultimately makes new ATHs. The recent correction is year end selling, but mostly in China as exchanges must close by Dec 31. So January should abate that selling.

So thus congruent with my Jan 7 – 18 timing of a final capitulation low coming if not already behind us.

Interest rates also ready to massive breakout of a bullish symmetrical triangle which is bullish for Bitcoin as BTC has been tracking the moves in interest rates.

Note that as BTC made new ATH, interest rates started to decline which is what caused this correction. The Omicron FUD caused interest rates to declines but deaths are non-existent so interest rates are recovering but BTC hasn't recovered yet of Chinese forced selling.

Responding to someone:

“I think that until BTC gets regulated, we won't be seeing the big institutions come in to stabilize the price. For now there are still too much speculators using leverage. If I was leveraged right now, you can bet I'd be selling to minimize risk. BTC got a failed break of the ATH. That's cause for deleveraging imo.”

Nothing failed. It's in a massive bullish rising triangle with a breakout to 160+k in Q1. Smart money (other than China) buying this dip. Retail interest at all time lows is a massive buying opportunity. Institutional money continues to stream in as shown the video.

Responding to someone else:

“The correlation with the ten year yields is compelling but from what I see, it’s not the only force impacting the price of BTC. The four year halving cycle seems to play the biggest role in creating massive bull runs every four years. It’s possible the yields will give BTC another boost in a few months, but it appears to me this would not supersede the four year cycle boost. But because it is unpredictable like the 4y cycle boost, it’s possible it will be more pronounced this time as it cannot be shorted into. In addition if you look all the way back to 2013, you can easily see the yields don’t always correlate well with BTC price, especially during the four year best phases.

If the current price is also dictated by the four year cycle, we seem to have peaked back in November. Let’s see.”

Ben Cowen recently explained that there was a 2 cycle, then a 4 year and now apparently a 6 year. Bitcoin was an uncorrelated asset in its fledgling history but now is viewed as in competition with bonds as BTC is becoming a monetary reserve asset which is also why we see 10 million transactions making new ATHs whilst retail is not. Retail is more FOMOed into altcoins now compared to 2017.

“Shelby Moore I do my own analysis. What is the basis for a two year cycle? And a six year cycle? Four year cycle is based on the clear halving cycle.”

guneeta the four year cryptowinter cycle was based on arbitrarily making some assumptions about only two major peaks (two data points) but there was arguably a two year cycle that preceded it. I have decoded the entire Elliot Wave structure of the entire history of Bitcoin. We are only in wave 3 of the current bull cycle so there is absolutely no way that November was the top. Wave 3 tops in 2022 and then wave 5 in 2023.

Responding to someone else:

“8:20 so a fed taper and rate hike is bullish for bitcoin but bearish for bitcoin? this relationship between the US10Y and btc has only existed since march 2020. prior to that they moved opposite to each other.”

@JinKee February/March 2020 Elon Musk purchased and legitimized Bitcoin from something ignored by institutional investors into a monetary asset increasingly sought by them instead of bonds.

“@ShelbyMoore huh. that means we might be on the verge of the Great Decoupling between bitcoin and stocks. prior to 2020 bitcoin used to follow stocks, and still does sort of. if bitcoin becomes proven as a reserve collateral asset on corporate balance sheets, the old money central bankers will be forced into some kind of reaction because they were hoping that gold would fill that role. the gold market is still weighed down by central bank selling pressure, but bitcoin is harder to control because the central banks have not announced they hold large quantities of it.”

@JinKee I don't agree with GoT's thesis that stocks are ready for a multi-year crash like in 2008, c.f. my comments on GoT's prior video. Instead it might be like the 1990s and stocks will have corrections or even egregious flash crashes but the Fed will quickly reflate because the systemic risk is too egregious now to just let a recession run it's natural course. Eventually there will be a world war and monetary reset perhaps by 2026 or 2027. The Fed has been intentionally pushed entirely off the rails by the premediated medical terrorism and the genie can not be put back in the bottle. Rothchild's Bitcoin is rising as the Phoenix as predicted in his Economic Magazine in 1988. This has been planned out exquisitely using various pawns such as Windoze's Gill Baits and Schwab's/WEF Build Back Better to accomplish the end world government goal.

shelby3

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