The New Cycle Going Forward

1 thg 1, 2020

The above long term monthly chart in Bitcoin compares the volatility of price [BBW - Bollinger Band Width], the RSI and price itself. The main observation being that the low in price volatility [as measured in the BBW] is an extremely lagging factor compared to both price itself and the RSI, which tends to coincide with price.

What's noticeable at first glance, at the previous cycle's bottom, is the opposite direction in which the BBW travels as compared to both price and the RSI - where price and the RSI resolutely move up, the BBW continues to move down... for a full fifteen months after the other two have bottomed. By the time the BBW/ volatility has bottomed, price has doubled [$200 - $400], and has also been relatively flat for a good few months hence the low on the Bollinger Band Width.

Moving forward to the present cycle, you can see the same dynamic playing out - volatility is bottoming, and so the prediction is that price will in turn track sideways for a good few months. this makes sense if BTC is to build a solid base for the next push up going forward.

And yet the viewer may ask why the RSI is tracking downwards instead of upwards as in the previous cycle. This is due to the huge and premature move up that was seen in the 'mini parabola' that has spent as many months correcting. In the aggregate/ average [the line traced], the RSI is still moving up. It also points [along with the BBW and price] to the future direction and duration of this cycle going forward. Yes, this cycle not the next, for the observation of this chart is that the current cycle, if measured from the top, is near kaf way complete already [2 of 5 years].

Happy New Year all~~~~