Sure, we are in a downturn, a bear market; so what?
With a long term line of sight, it's easy to see where Bitcoin is going. Every country has laws that govern. Heavyweights like the United States and China impact global markets. Considering Bitcoin has the attention of the two largest economies in the world, it's understandable that the market is affected. Take the blinders off and look at the long term environment for Bitcoin. I will share what I see.
Path one:
Bitcoin in the next year establishes confidence with the support of the United States regulatory environment. China and the United States make a long term trade deal and Bitcoin is open for business between the two countries as a valid means for transacting wealth. China's digital yen is utilized for global stock exchanges and the United States citizens will use Bitcoin as a vehicle between the two currencies (US Dollar <> Bitcoin <> Yen).
Heres why. The dollar is losing foothold as a controlling global currency. With the digital yen hitting the global markets, the rest of the world gains immediate access to new financial tools based on the yen. The United States can use Bitcoin to compete as the transition to a digital dollar occurs. The United States will play a wait-and-see approach to a digital dollar, and they might just use Bitcoin as the vehicle to explore its options.
If this path plays out, the value of Bitcoin will explode. For instance, fast track adoption in various stock exchanges across the world. Digital assets of various types will grow and allow cross-chain functionality with Bitcoin blockchain. Debt for countries will reduce due to new asset class creating a means for governments to secure new wealth for their fiat systems.
Path two:
Bitcoin continues to have issues with unfair policies set by various countries (especially, the United States and China). As regulations are muddy, Bitcoin continues to see extream two-way volatility. It will be emotional with up and down movement that causes whiplash. Fortunately, it can't last forever. The trend will change and governments will adopt friendly policies to please global fintech demand. Once the dust settles and regulations have a clear path for working with Bitcoin technology, we will see a continuation with the global trend in Bitcoin wealth generation.
Path three:
Bitcoin is outlawed in China due to an anti-competition stance with the digital yen. The United States continues to attempt a trade deal and faces central banking issues with the digital yen and de-dollarization of China. The United States desires to compete and opens all markets to access the US Dollar using Bitcoin in various market verticals like ETF and so forth. Matter of fact, this might be one reason for such delays to move this direction. If this occurs, the United States will adopt an open FinTech market to the global community to combat China and its de-dollarization with the digital yen. Bitcoin will explode and be used as a means to reduce the United States deficit. We might get close to a world war with China if this occurs, so it's not a great path to see come to fruition.
Path four:
Bitcoin is outlawed by China and the United States. Allies of these countries will adopt the trend. Global markets suffer, riots break out, and the fight for privacy becomes a global issue. A global depression occurs that has never been seen before. Due to global communication Bitcoin rises from its ashes and creates a new global economy. If this happens, the Bitcoin value will go near zero and explode to incredible valuation.
Path five:
Bitcoin is outlawed by all governments. The network becomes weak and is taken over due to a lack of contribution to maturing its codebase. It's an all-out digital mess and becomes worthless. This path seems the least likely to occur.
In the end, most paths you can imagine lead to Bitcoin gaining new wealth generation abilities with services being adopted to complement regulatory environments. The long term outlook seems favorable for the technology. For this reason, I love blockchain technologies and will continue to build the skillset to compete in future economic environments in tech.
If it does not work out, oh well, it's been a wonderful ride. I will have stories to tell for generations to come :)
If you read this far, share your outlook. What is your thoughts regarding the potential paths for Bitcoin?
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