Oil Hunting
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We are on a bull wave that started somewhere around 72.5. I have en eye on the dates of 12 and 30 to 31 with an interest in the type of candlesticks that will be formed. I also marked 3 price levels in case any candlestick shadows will appear near them.
The main question should be: where will this bullish wave end? or when. If it's not the end, is there an opportunity to jump on it?
Trading on the daily chart is simple but not easy. It is very hard to position yourself in the right direction. Going against the previous daily candle, or just following the direction of it. Choppy weeks or months do not provide much profit potential for the daily chart traders, unless there is volatility and their trading strategy has a mathematical advantage or luck.
In order to compute and be aware of your presumed mathematical advantage one must use math, statistics, back testing, in order to figure the whole picture out. The picture that offers the perspective of contextualisation into the grand scheme of large numbers. Which is the main story that will show you if you can make money or not in the long run. Why would you even trade without such a complete picture backed by numbers? Some say this would be just gambling. Others believe in luck or instinct or fate. But if the future is already set in stone then so is our performance as traders in the future. Knowing the future doesn't mean that you can change the future. You are already a part of it. A piece of the puzzle. Just like this snapshot with lines that are waiting for price action. Japanese Candlesticks. Patterns. Shadows of the future. A good candlestick shadow to trade is the one that is being left behind by the market. Down shadow before the price goes up. Up shadow before the price goes down. Hard to trade these. Unless you get lucky or just have a mathematical advantage.
The main question should be: where will this bullish wave end? or when. If it's not the end, is there an opportunity to jump on it?
Trading on the daily chart is simple but not easy. It is very hard to position yourself in the right direction. Going against the previous daily candle, or just following the direction of it. Choppy weeks or months do not provide much profit potential for the daily chart traders, unless there is volatility and their trading strategy has a mathematical advantage or luck.
In order to compute and be aware of your presumed mathematical advantage one must use math, statistics, back testing, in order to figure the whole picture out. The picture that offers the perspective of contextualisation into the grand scheme of large numbers. Which is the main story that will show you if you can make money or not in the long run. Why would you even trade without such a complete picture backed by numbers? Some say this would be just gambling. Others believe in luck or instinct or fate. But if the future is already set in stone then so is our performance as traders in the future. Knowing the future doesn't mean that you can change the future. You are already a part of it. A piece of the puzzle. Just like this snapshot with lines that are waiting for price action. Japanese Candlesticks. Patterns. Shadows of the future. A good candlestick shadow to trade is the one that is being left behind by the market. Down shadow before the price goes up. Up shadow before the price goes down. Hard to trade these. Unless you get lucky or just have a mathematical advantage.
Ghi chú
I mentioned in the initial description that I marked 3 price levels in case any candlestick shadows appear near them. We had one yesterday and it was left behind by the price. On the marked day of 12. Day not over though.Ghi chú
The 12th is over. Has a nice small shadow at the high. Would consider selling here. Maybe it would be better to wait for the potential bearish harami if the day closes lower, but this can also become a bearish engulfing and a missed opportunity. Could use the 4h chart for a better entry. Ghi chú
Ghi chú
I mentioned the high on the 12th @80.6. The price did not close higher than that in the following days. Unfortunately the shadow of the top did not touch the 82.13 level. Would have looked much better.Ghi chú
Anyone in a short is wondering now if their stop loss will be hit. The best wave to ride is the one that leaves your entry behind and you can start adjusting your trailing stop. If the market starts falling again, there will be the first bearish candle to signal that. Unless it's too big to follow.Are we still on the bull wave? If yes where will it end? Or has it already ended?
Ghi chú
Today's candle makes for a very interesting setup, but I find the two shadows of the previous candles lows too close and too recent. I might be wrong, but it is not an ideal setup from my perspective.Ghi chú
What is this ping pong between the marked price level and that ellipse where those shadows popped? I don't even want to know. It is Friday and I am not buying on this candle. Won't regret it even if it's a Rocket on Monday. Just to avoid a potential Shooting Star.Ghi chú
Marked date of 12 had a potential buy signal (opening price) with candlestick shadow previous candle at the level. Tomorrow next marked date, interesting candle, no price level. Ghi chú
A decent rebound just above the marked level of 82.13.Ghi chú
Quote from the original idea: "The main question should be: where will this bullish wave end? or when. If it's not the end, is there an opportunity to jump on it? "
Answers:
A good entry point would have been the bounce from the marked level 82.13 on 23, 24, or 25 Agust.
No the bullish wave doesn't seem to end yet.
Congratulations to anyone who bought this and held on to the position.
Ghi chú
Will the bulls manage to create another high? or will it find resistance at 91.98?
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