BTC - headed up... very slowly. (with alternatives)
Earlier I posted an idea about BTC possibly being in a bearish pennant and hopefuly breaking out of that pattern. It seems we have somewhat broken pattern and are headed upwards again.
Today's volume has been pretty horrible but I'd like to believe BTC is headed up - albeit very slowly. The left chart is what I believe to be the trajectory. Bear in mind that it's a very rough estimate and in no way good for targets. Chart on the right is to show fib levels. Thick orange bar is to indicate where I anchored my fib points.
Some things to consider:
- BTC seems to have bounced from 50% fib. Whether or not I anchored it properly is up for debate. I did not use the absolute bottom.
- Economically speaking there's a lot of unrest worldwide. People might be less likely to invest when they're uncertain about how things are developing. This is probably the reason for the lack of volume right now.
- Breaking out of the bearish pennant wasn't very strong. I am a firm believer in PA and patterns but I'm not convinced we're in the clear yet. I am just somewhat more likely to believe we're going up instead of down.
Alternative plans
Fib anchored from absolute bottom
(This one is most likely to happen in case the original plan fails).
Implies that we're not done retracing yet. Instead another leg down (presumably tomorrow) will follow down to 40000 - 40500 region. Candlestick analysis makes sense for this plan.
Not done crabbing yet
(Not very likely, but could possibly happen)
Fib levels no longer apply. We will lower support instead at 37000.
Bearish pennant has not yet ended
(Least likely. Will probably not happen.)
Retest of previous support near 28000 - 29000
Capitulation mode
(I'll admit this adds nothing of value but I'll add it anyway :))
Safe trading guys!
Today's volume has been pretty horrible but I'd like to believe BTC is headed up - albeit very slowly. The left chart is what I believe to be the trajectory. Bear in mind that it's a very rough estimate and in no way good for targets. Chart on the right is to show fib levels. Thick orange bar is to indicate where I anchored my fib points.
Some things to consider:
- BTC seems to have bounced from 50% fib. Whether or not I anchored it properly is up for debate. I did not use the absolute bottom.
- Economically speaking there's a lot of unrest worldwide. People might be less likely to invest when they're uncertain about how things are developing. This is probably the reason for the lack of volume right now.
- Breaking out of the bearish pennant wasn't very strong. I am a firm believer in PA and patterns but I'm not convinced we're in the clear yet. I am just somewhat more likely to believe we're going up instead of down.
Alternative plans
Fib anchored from absolute bottom
(This one is most likely to happen in case the original plan fails).
Implies that we're not done retracing yet. Instead another leg down (presumably tomorrow) will follow down to 40000 - 40500 region. Candlestick analysis makes sense for this plan.
Not done crabbing yet
(Not very likely, but could possibly happen)
Fib levels no longer apply. We will lower support instead at 37000.
Bearish pennant has not yet ended
(Least likely. Will probably not happen.)
Retest of previous support near 28000 - 29000
Capitulation mode
(I'll admit this adds nothing of value but I'll add it anyway :))
Safe trading guys!
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