Time to Re-evaluate BTC!
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Welcome traders!
As you can see, Bitcoin has gone from Bullish to Bearish almost over night, and just like that the market sentiment switches! It's a testament to how quickly these markets can change in these volatile times. Just how low can we go?
I have switched to linear charts as this gives us a more accurate channel to draw. It is different from my previous TA which was based on Logarithmic charting, but this is why I previously stated that we would have to completely re asses the markets in the event of a bullish to bearish switch. We have capitulated dramatically from the top of the channel, all the way down to the famous .618 Retracement line. We are currently below the 200 day MA, so things are looking bleak to say the least.
If we can't stay above the .618 line, then I can't imagine that the 0.786 will hold us for long as we will be pretty close the 6k lows from the beginning of February. It's not impossible that we can stay above this low and bounce back, but catching a falling knife is dangerous and I would really want to see some strong buy volume come in to give us any indication of a reversal. If we break 6k, we could go as low as the bottom of the channel, which would be around 3k. I know that sounds drastic, and I hope that this doesn't happen, but panic selling could really set in so it's definitely not out of the realms of possibilities. Hopefully we would find support at 5k with a strong bounce, but as it's so close to 6k I find it hard to believe this level will hold.
Lets hope some strong buying can come in soon, or we can find support above 6k!
As you can see, Bitcoin has gone from Bullish to Bearish almost over night, and just like that the market sentiment switches! It's a testament to how quickly these markets can change in these volatile times. Just how low can we go?
I have switched to linear charts as this gives us a more accurate channel to draw. It is different from my previous TA which was based on Logarithmic charting, but this is why I previously stated that we would have to completely re asses the markets in the event of a bullish to bearish switch. We have capitulated dramatically from the top of the channel, all the way down to the famous .618 Retracement line. We are currently below the 200 day MA, so things are looking bleak to say the least.
If we can't stay above the .618 line, then I can't imagine that the 0.786 will hold us for long as we will be pretty close the 6k lows from the beginning of February. It's not impossible that we can stay above this low and bounce back, but catching a falling knife is dangerous and I would really want to see some strong buy volume come in to give us any indication of a reversal. If we break 6k, we could go as low as the bottom of the channel, which would be around 3k. I know that sounds drastic, and I hope that this doesn't happen, but panic selling could really set in so it's definitely not out of the realms of possibilities. Hopefully we would find support at 5k with a strong bounce, but as it's so close to 6k I find it hard to believe this level will hold.
Lets hope some strong buying can come in soon, or we can find support above 6k!
Ghi chú
Bear flag breakdown. Doesn't look like this bounce was sustained so I'm looking for more downside. Next targets are 7216 if we go below the 0.618.
Ghi chú
Btw guys I actually welcome more downside! The bigger picture is what I'm more concerned about. Cheaper bitcoin = more profits in the future. It's why I previously said that you should NOT enter trades until a breakout above 12k. Cash is your safest bet during these times. I would rather sacrifice a little less bitcoin than risk losing more fiat.Ghi chú
Continue to look bearish . If this is a valid H&S pattern, then targets to the downside could reach $5000 and beyond.
Ghi chú
Looks like we are falling through the bear flag and heading lower, I have drawn a green trendline going back as far as July, which could support us if we break the .786 Retracement. Also watching to see if we can get a bounce and more divergence on the RSI, but I don't think it's likely.
Ghi chú
We bounced strong off the 0.786 Retracement level with a decent amount of volume. RSI showing divergence on the 4 hour time frame. This could be a temporary bounce back up to the top of the channel, so we will have to see if it's sustained enough. It's likely that we will retrace slightly back to the 0.618 at around 8183, which could be a good buying opportunity for those looking to trade this. We would want to see the bounce starting before entering this sort of trade.
Ghi chú
An interesting perspective from a logarithmic view point. Bouncing right of the trend line.
Ghi chú
Bitcoin -5.84% still remains Bearish. Two factors make me think that we are due for a quick bounce though. The daily RSI is becoming oversold, and we are currently on a red 9 on the TD 1.34% Sequential Indicator. A 1-4 day correction to the upside is therefore probable. I believe this bounce could happen around the 6k mark, which is a strong previous support line. However, I think it's likely that this will be a dead cat bounce, and we will continue to head lower. Next targets from 6k would be 5k, another strong support line from a few months back.
Ghi chú
We had a bounce a little higher than I thought, but we roughly followed my arrows. We remain in this Bear Flag so I unless we manage to break up from this, I expect more continuation to the downside soon.
I have drawn a falling wedge in green, which will be validated if we break out. Before this happens though I expect a retest of at least 6k, and probably lower to 5.4-5k.
Ghi chú
Possible H&S pattern about to play out, with downside targets at $5400. Only validated once we drop bellow the neckline.
Ghi chú
We have started to use the downtrend line as support, but are also in a bear flag . The bears still have control here whilst the bulls are trying to pick up momentum. RSI is cooling off from oversold conditions which is what the bears want before making another move. I wouldn't be surprised if the bulls attempt to break out of this flag, but unless they can get above the right shoulder and the head, I favor the pressure from the bears at this point.
Ghi chú
This is where I think we are compared to the 2014 bear market, a 30% is very possible. Notice how it tightened up like how the current market is behaving, before dropping.
Ghi chú
See the similarities in these charts? 20 EMA could act as strong resistance like we've historically seen. That's a level I'm watching.
Ghi chú
We have started to break down from the bear flag , as we predicted. RSI almost hit oversold on the hourly time frame so a quick bounce to retest the bottom of the bear flag was expected. Now we see if the bears have enough momentum to push BTC -1.54% down. Bulls are fighting so we could have some resistance, and some small rallies up. Overall we are still looking bearish .
Ghi chú
Massive green candle stick has drove us out out of the downtrend channel for the first time in months! I still think we are going back down eventually though, and this will probably wipe out a lot of shorts in the short term. Well done to those who called this, I admit that I was very skeptical of this scenario but the markets follow no rules! As a trader, I would be looking for a higher low and then a re entry on the bounce. I would Be watching key levels at 8554 and 9179 as possible take profit/reversal points.
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