We've seen elliot waves, manipulation, institutional news, but..

21 thg 4, 2018

There is no doubt that this should be seen as a trend reversal.

Is it a bull market? Nah, not yet, but it's not the 4k bear market most TA would have you assume.

Why? BTC will be bought up well before it ever gets there, hell, not much was being sold at 6.4k.

Pantara capital said 6.5k was the bottom and I trust them, they have far more resources than I do.

None the less, whats next? Well...aside from some good ol' sideways action, I feel utility, fibs, and solid investment strategy reigns supreme.

The fomo will subside soon enough but with the major log trendline break, bots and long term investors alike will be buying the dips. I'm not magic, I'm realistic and lately $200-$500 dips have been being bought up like BTC in some sort of scarcity model that a lot of TA just cant account for.

Don't let me fool you, I'm in USDT right now trying to figure out whats a good deal here, wait for a dip, snag that cheap alt people dumped too early, wait for strength, it's tough to figure out a gameplan when what we saw wasnt a breakout into fomoland, it was a breakout into a sell off.

Hmmmm............

Maybe I just didnt give it enough time but honestly it didnt feel like people were waiting on the edge of their chair to buy the breakout...

I stare at my Trading View app and everything outside of BTC is red. It makes TA sense, most EW traders can count a very obvious Wave 5 of 5 up, RSI/Volume Traders know its overbought, and other TA experts still fancy a decent retracement before setting up longs from here.

Spoofy whale could dump on us at anytime right? I doubt it, but I understand the logic behind your far from relaxed mentality, less than a week ago, a lot of people suggested we could fall to sub 5k.

I never believed them, honestly, capitulation in a scarity model is a pretty ignorant concept when relating it to normal markets. But the OG's in crypto remember seeing BTC at super lows, and let's face it, the corn has made some massive gains in the last year.

None the less, it's not pulling back now.

If it was going to, we would have saw sub 6k, but there was a lot of people lined up to buy there and not that many people selling, logistically speaking, the demand far outweighs the supply.

I'm honestly just trying to provide some sort of value to the community so if you don't mind helping my reputation if you like this sort of analysis, I'd love to be able to entering the chat room with everyone that I read messages from daily.

If you're looking for TA, I'll eventually post some concepts but for now, I'd like to look at things a little more realistically. If you're into TA run some fibs on WAN, if your into FA look into VEN, and if your a utility trader, I like BNB & POE. To round off my 5 picks for now, I'll add a sleeper PRL. (You won't even be able to chart it here)

Whats next? I feel like we are going to see some mini alt season-like trading, a small pullback on BTC, and a slow but steady influx of capital entering into the market. It's a great time to buy the dip, as we've recently seen very little of that and ultimately is has not seen enough of a pullback at any point from 6.4k to suggest it will for the time being. I expect it to be quite different in the 5 digit zone but until then, it does not seem profitable for whales to dump on us. Granted they still could so make sure to be safe.

Set your stop losses, if you do that sort of thing, hedge against worst case scenarios, DCA, pick solid coins less effected by pumps and dumps if your planning on sleeping on it, and constantly take some profits and slide them around.

I'm not a financial advisor but I hope one day you call me a friend,
BCG.