BTCUSD: Is 300k a realistic target?

27 thg 11

Despite the weekly correction, Bitcoin remains bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 66.961, MACD = 5631.400< ADX = 43.561) and even overbought on the 1W timeframe (RSI = 74.750). That is because the market has started the final parabolic rally, the cycle's most aggressive phase, supported by the 1W MA50. It can stay overbought until the top, the end of the cycle. Based on the 1W CCI, we may be in a 3 week consolidation stage before the rally resumes. According to the previous Cycle, this happened a little over the 0.5 Fibonacci level. Taking a +1,895.45% rise from the bottom, we can see that the exact same position is applied on the current Cycle and stage.

Does this mean that we can see $300,000 as this Cycle's top? Technically yes but it goes against Bitcoin's Theory of Diminishing Returns. Of course, this Cycle is different as we are already over the previous Cycle's ATH, while in November 2020 we were exactly on it. This is due to the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, which has accelerated its growth, so maybe the capital inflows will extend this Cycle beyond what should have been based on the diminishing returns.


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