BITCOIN Remember remember the month of December. Bottom or not?

3 thg 12, 2019

We have entered the final month of the year. As you guessed from the title this study will attempt to find any significance that December may have on Bitcoin.

*December 2018 and 2017*
I am sure you are well aware that around this time last year (2018) BTC made the Bear Cycle bottom. That was listed at 3,122.30 (Dec 2018), and the month closed at -7.10%. The rest is history (relentless rally up to 13,861.90 in June). Going back another year (Dec 2017), Bitcoin made the former Bull Cycle top (and ATH) at 19,666 and closed the month at +39.53%. So essentially when the price was in a multi-month downtrend December marked the bottom (2018) while when on a multi-month uptrend (2017) it marked the top. It is easy to assume that since we are on a downtrend since June, December has more probabilities to price the market bottom.

*Going back more*
In order to have a more accurate estimation, it is best to look at the complete picture, going back more years back into the historic price action:

Dec 2016: Monthly Uptrend previously (within a Bull Cycle), month closed at +29.95%
Dec 2015: Monthly Uptrend previously (within a Bull Cycle), month closed at +13.91%
Dec 2014: Monthly Downtrend previously (within a Bear Cycle), month closed at -14.49%
Dec 2013: Monthly Uptrend previously (within a Bull Cycle), month closed at -33.15%
Dec 2012: Monthly Uptrend previously (within a Bull Cycle), month closed at +7.48%
Dec 2011: Monthly Downtrend previously (within a Bear Cycle), month closed at +58.92%
Dec 2010: Monthly Uptrend previously (within a Bull Cycle), month closed at +44.09%








From all the above it becomes obvious that December is bullish when the price is on a Bull Cycle with the exception of 2013, which marked the Top of the market. Similarly when Bitcoin is on a Bear Cycle, December is bearish with the exception of 2011, which was right after the Bottom of the market.

*Is it different this time?*
Well some can argue that this time is different (and I wouldn't blame them at all) as it is the first time Bitcoin is on a multi-month downtrend within a Bull Cycle. Does that mean that this December will go against the norm of being bullish within a Bull Cycle? Maybe. But statistically long term investors will have a greater risk/reward ratio buying as all the above parameters point that we are on or close to the new market bottom.


Which scenario do you think Bitcoin will follow this December? Will it mark a bottom for this phase of the cycle? Let me know in the comments section!

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