Why "HoDL"-ing is extremely stupid

21 thg 2, 2018

A picture says a 1000 words, so why write a whole column. If you think -86% is acceptable over a long period of time, be my guest.
Better to cut losses to buy more for cheaper. Not only that, it also has psychological and emotional effects on many people. They are lucky BTC made a comeback, they aren't so lucky next time when it gets deprecated. Ask any stockholder of the dot com bubble how it feels to have worthless stock in their possession: "HoDL".

21 thg 2, 2018

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Current timespan to future

22 thg 2, 2018

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22 thg 2, 2018

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23 thg 2, 2018

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2019-2020 moon is of course out of thin air, because we cannot predict time, especially the further we go in time, we will see what happens to price as well, because for that long time period, it's also unknown. If moonnumbers are the case for given period, you'd know bitcoin is in the next bubble. Would be fun to watch in a few years back what have become and will certainly update this post. I don't believe 2018 will be the year of the next bubble, there are way too many imminent cases against being bullish, that are in the making internationally. Maybe a run-up in the making end of 2018, just maybe, who knows.

What we can know are realistic numbers for bitcoin regression based on passed performance and available data.

24 thg 2, 2018

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Friendly reminder (not financial advice, it's what I'd do if I owned any crypto):
If you care about $ (that's why you trade and/or invest, right? That's right, otherwise you'd not be reading this), I'd highly suggest to consider to liquidate your holdings in the coming bounce.

Safe play would be 10.4k, but you can gamble if it goes to 11k. This might be your last chance. Next cycle top high probability to be 8.8k.

Why? Because for the imminent state of affairs regarding crypto. I can safely predict the closings of many exchanges, including major ones. Some exchanges will refuse to audit or are unable to do so, for the simple reason they have to have open books. As we know, the crypto space is heavily manipulated. Tracking down who does spoofing, washtrading, pump and dumps, etc. would mean 10 years of federal prison and 10 million usd fines. It can be used as an excuse to protect clients, but who knows if the exchange itself do not manipulate? We know they do and we knew it first from mt gox.

One exchange in the USA and it's owner is already in serious trouble and can face 20 years in prison, by obfuscating lost client funds from a hack. That's just news from a few days ago.

There is exponentially more negative news and regulations in the making to internationally go for the exchanges and its clients. This can mean the btc can be dumped they have in their possession, since you do not own them (have the private keys).

You'd say, this news causes the coming bear market, but that's not true. We can already know from looking at the chart and see that we're at least 600% overvalued and it started before the coming major fud. Smart money is not coming in at those ridiculous prices, so forget about wall street. It's illegal for them in the first place to buy bitcoin anyway, since it's unregulated, hence cboe and cme futures, which are barely traded of what could be.

26 thg 2, 2018

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To give you a clearer view.

2013-2014 -> 2015-2017


2017-2018


2013-2018


Now, take a piece of paper and put it on screen on the bottom trendline. Yes, that's how they did it in the past as well. Bitcoin should be 3 digits when we're in the accumulation phase, at most 2k.

Bubble chart: smart money vs institutional investors vs public vs joe fomo
bravenewcoin.com/assets/Uploads/four-stages-chart.jpg

That's why I don't "HoDL" :-)

26 thg 2, 2018

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Now that my warning for both has come to fruition (and you could have sold at the top at 11.7k for #1 alts -> btc and #2 btc -> fiat + second chance to 10.4k), I'd like to know what your thoughts are (sentiment)?

For most of you who're reading this is, it's too late, for some, it's not. I think in life, everything has a purpose, so those who've headed the warning and acted, I hope I could have saved you that %20 haircut + another big % haircut for the alts.

I'll keep this updated as time moves on, although there is not much to add at the moment.

5 thg 3, 2018

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I got a nice chart using ichimoku for those who don't see the regression to the mean on the naked chart, by seeing the trend by cloud color. Yes, my dear followers, as you can see, it IS a replica of 2014, right on the fractals + same bearish red cloud on the exact same date (early march). We're again at 15k which is a direct correlation of '14 and we likely going to see 12.8k as well to force the "normal phase" of wallstreet's bubble chart by going in that red cloud before crashing down to lower levels.

Dow's theory @ bulltrap
forex-central.net/img/Dow-theory-chart-1.jpg

The bear market from '14 ended in october '15, when we never went below the red clouds again.

Unless we break 14.4k, this downtrend continues heading towards a bear market. I've yet to see capitulation. A good confirmation is this ichimoku cloud, which imho is one of the best indicators that is available for trading and investing.
People who are perma bulls are in denial. Math does not lie, but human's perception and reasoning/rationalization is and it's dangerous. I'll stay balanced, grounded and focused.

History is always repeating itself, because humans do not chance. Since the days of the earliest traders/merchants in the days of Solomon, humans have not changed till this day, only the environment.
Q&A:
No, this time it is not different.
Yes, we're in bubble.
No, you're not early.
Yes, blockchain will become huge.
No, bitcoin won't be a million usd before 2020 (unless maybe when there is hyperinflation in the fiat float).

Life is random? I don't think so.

8 thg 3, 2018

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So my predictions at 24 February are crystallizing more and more and you'll see more next week when this cycle ends.

Remember, this was the plan all along. Joe smoe does not have deep pockets to unload over 100k bitcoins in 15 minutes on all major exchanges, not even individual whales. News is just an excuse to paint charts without suspicion. I think you know who the real players are already and this give my arguments strength in coming out.

Again, tether and mtgox are nothing to what is coming. This time, a lot more people got involved and more money will be lost, doesn't matter if you're good or bad trader, if you ain't holding it, you don't own it. History always repeats, since human nature does not change.

New people (taxi crypto trader like) calling me stupid this and that since december and here on tv since I made this post and look at them now buying at top for listening to all fomo from their masters when they unload on their followers.

Be careful who you listen to and don't get your emotions messed up with rosy pinky biases. When people in this game who're doing this for years say to buy on social media or are suddenly super bullish at a CRITICAL resistance/support point, youtube and tv, you probably want to sell ;-) And again, 1-2 days later it collapses. You don't find angels in this game.

10 thg 3, 2018

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Using passed data to make sense of current and potential future movements (note that 2013 data is skewed (the orange fractal)).

2nd Angle = 38* / (43*/24*) ~= 21*

Thick blue line is trendline + channel to determine fly-off (breaking out of the mean channel) & bubble territory (going above it).
Thin blue dashed curved line is log regression.



Since we never corrected and tested prior lows below the blue line, there is a big possibility we will, hence an inverse of channel is needed wtih inverse log regression. As of speaking, log regression for btc is $464, but with passing time, it will go higher. If we follow most recent black trendlines, the bear should be over in 2019 April-May. This follows in line that crypto moves faster and faster than before and traditional markets.



Targets bear market:
- Low accumulation = $900
- Trend reversal to bull season = 2k

Target 2017 bullcorrection (since may after some institutional money came in):
- Low accumulation = 3k
- Trend reversal to bull season = 3.8k

12 thg 3, 2018

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Now that the perma bulls who attacked me for bearing bearish are silent when we bullran to 11.7 and soon will close their accounts to create a new one when the next bull run will start in many years to come, I want to remind you that holding bags of alts is not a wise thing to do. This is not financial advice, but my own opinion.

All cryptos' value are derived from speculation. It's insane that unrealistic or even worse, ideas are valued over billions of dollars! You don't have to be a rocket scientist to know this is going to end badly. There are some solid projects that have low market caps, like bat. It's a real company with one of the most talented devs in the world that achieved solving problems in the real world with working products/tech most of us use on a daily basis with a profit model, YET, ideas with unrealistic projects like IOTA and Tron are achieving exponentially bigger market caps where Tron didn't even had an English website for months recently. This pump and dump fraud is going to end as well and it's going to be a bloodbath in the alt coin space.

Most altcoins will find its intrinsic value of $0,- or close to it and that will happen when we entered the bear, which we did, which should have become apparent to anybody who is a professional trader/investor by looking at the breakout of the channel + broke the corrective bull structure in December.

As for big losses in alts: just look at the btc value of alts going back to dec + btc fiat value going down to previous dec levels as well, that's a whopping squared loss.

When we analyze how BTC performs vs alts, we find that alts are hit harder in up vs down in bull AND bear conditions. They also take a year longer to recover to previous highs. This means that the bear market, using algorithmic calculations at work and log regression which cannot be plotted on tv chart, will, following historical and present data, bottom out around H2 '19 and alts in 2020.

The accumulation phase will then begin and trading will, after capitulation, no more profitable for most (whales and small traders alike).
Usually, people will quit trading before that already to look for a job again.

12 thg 3, 2018

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So... what can do you? You should have already liquidated your alts at previous high for what was obvious. Okay, you missed this one out. Next step is to sell them to btc in their pump when btc settles and then sell that for fiat when btc gets it final local high.
You can also hodl, but for the very few who still are active here after 7 years, you don't want to experience that, since you could have allocated that money and time better in real life and other markets.
But, that's your choice and your path if you want to experience it. You won't be a perma bull after that, that is, if you're still trading/investing.

As for me, I'm going to accumulate when we're at the bottom when nobody speaks about crypto anymore next year. I don't see btc getting that market dominance again as previous bubbles, so I won't add to it that much. And no, bitcoin is not gold and will never be like gold. If that would be the case and we already know that gold is a bad investment, then btc will become as well as per that logic. The argument of store of value can be made for gold and not for btc, especially in this highly manipulated market. You did better have you invested in the stockmarket, especially reinvested dividends to get you a compounded return. Of course, you did even better when you speculated in the crypto space, but the law of big numbers are becoming more apparent in crypto, reducing profit further for the final bullrun.

Remember, cause has effect and bad actions have bad consequences and unfortunately, there many youngsters among us who will have to suffer through experience from a lack of financial and economic education in the public school system or from family members. The good thing is, they're young and great opportunities will still be available. The next bull run looks promising and imho that will be the last one before this market adopts the time problems of the traditional markets where bear and bull cycles can last generations.

13 thg 3, 2018

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I think most people have their Elliot Wave counts wrong. They assume we're still in a bullmarket on the basis of their counts, but I've concluded a long time already that we broke the correction, i.e. it's not a correction anymore, since the price shot through C-leg 17 January 2018, which was clear confirmation of a trend reversal.
Then how is it possible that people still place leg 1 at the top, where A is?
Therefore, my EW count is contrary to most, if not all people. I've yet to see anybody having it drawn as I've just did, so I call this my alternative EW count.

I've created 2 scenario's: Bullish vs Bearish.
Bullish @


Bearish @


Anything can happen of course, but following the trend, we can safely say bullish scenario can be thrown out of the window, although possibility is there that we continue the bubble.
Bearish scenario can either retrace to 138.2% or 161.82% again, latter which coincides with 6k exactly on last bottom. I didn't call bottom last time 6k, but bought around 6.4k which was good enough for me. It was also not impossible to know if we followed fibs, so that either was a controlled move or pure coincidence, which I don't believe in.

13 thg 3, 2018

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"Rick Reacts: Hodling is bullsh*t; spend-and-replace is what wins the game."
youtube.com/watch?v=2nWGBMHUHj8

19 thg 3, 2018

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There is still a long way to go in my opinion.



"But.. but... bitcoin is not a bubble and bitcoin is cheap". Okay, then why don't you buy all the "dips"?
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/b/bAlNZtUu.png


For the fellow conscious contrarian investor, you know what to do next time before the herd sees it three months later for what it is.



From $0.35 in 2011 to $19,800 in 2018 = 56571.428x increase. You might be lucky in the next bullrun to get a 50x return, which is close to a million, which I doubt.
Early adopters are laughing all the way to the bank or create their own ;-)

26 thg 5, 2018

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Acceptance
youtube.com/watch?v=Fn310KaOxnU

30 thg 5, 2018

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The 99% of amateurs here on TV (even "pros" that do this for several years / decades are best described here:
youtu.be/FjiyJoW3aLU?t=18m32s
18:32m - 20:31m

I've been saying this for years why cost (dollar) averaging down is extremely stupid. Whenever you hear someone say this, run away.

If somebody is coming in my office with this "strategy", I'd fire him immediately.

28 thg 6, 2018

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I've posted this clip 1 month too early, but I will expect this coming summer:
youtube.com/watch?v=Fn310KaOxnU

Be careful or take the opportunity. One's burden is another's treasure.