Key Insights into Bitcoin’s Halving Cycles (updated)

2 thg 12, 2024

1. Halving Cycle Structure

This chart leverages Bitcoin's logarithmic scale to illustrate its price behavior across halving cycles, providing a clearer perspective on exponential growth and diminishing returns.

Key Takeaways from Bitcoin's Halving Cycles

1. Halving Cycle Structure

Cycle Length: Each cycle spans 1432 days (approximately 4 years), divided into:
Bull Market Phase (1064 days): Gradual accumulation followed by accelerated growth.
Bear Market Phase (365 days): Sharp corrections and consolidation before recovery.
Historically, bull markets account for the majority of price growth, with bear markets serving as cooling-off periods.

2. Historical Price Performance

Cycle 1 (2012 Halving):
Entire Cycle move: 11644%
Pre-Halving having: +390%
Post halving +2947%
96.65% of the entire move was after the Halving.


Cycle 2 (2016 Halving):
Entire Cycle move: 2503%
Pre Halving: +213%
Post halving +703%
91.5% of the entire move was after the Halving

Cycle 3 (2020 Halving): Still going...
Hypothesis: 86% of the entire move was after the Halving.
Entire Cycle move: 1671.43%% based on my maths
Pre Halving: +234% so far
Post halving +92% so far

If the hypothesis is true then 905k is the projected price.

3. Upcoming 2024 Halving Predictions

Projected move: 270K USD peak if historical patterns persist and the Hypothesis holds.

Bear Market (2027–2028):
Based on prior cycles, corrections could range from -70% to -80%, leading to a consolidation



Trade safe
Tarder Leo