Repeating pattern. Most likely back to bear mode soon.

15 thg 7, 2018

The price action for almost two months now has been fairly repetitive. Drop then make a triangle, then break out back to the top of the triangle and drop again. The only time this rule was broken was in the yellow bubble resulting in people becoming bullish and BTC trading above $6300 for over a week before dropping again. Given how quickly we dropped back below $6300 and the rejection the other night I think that this pattern is going to resume and we will at least revisit $5800 again and most likely drop further.

$6300 might hold for a little while but I think we will go sideways to a max of around $6500 before dropping again.

I don't short this market so will watch the price action for a couple days before making my next move. Shorting is a dangerous move since if we go sideways for a few days there's always a chance of getting squeezed because shorts keep piling up at the same price level. If shorts start climbing rapidly (which will most likely happen if we drop below 6k), then there will be possibility of a short squeeze. Patience is key now.

15 thg 7, 2018

Ghi chú

I also think that we will only bottom out and then start the bull run if either of the following happens:

- V shaped bottom. For this to happen we need to go a lot lower, even sub 5k.

- Massive short squeeze. For this to happen we need shorts to start increasing exponentially. This will only occur if we drop big or if we make a large triangle like back in early April. Shorts need to increase steadily like this whilst the BTC price goes mostly sideways or down.

15 thg 7, 2018

Ghi chú

So until I see one of the above situations I will just be trading the ranges and not going into a long term holding strategy.

16 thg 7, 2018

Ghi chú

There's been a bit of bullish price action today. A lot of the move up has been due to shorts being closed/stopped though and there is still a fair bit of resistance between $6600 and $6900. So I think it's best to just wait and watch for the next move. Shorts got hit:



I also read a comment a few days ago which is important to note in times like this when you miss a move. "It's better to be out of the market wishing you were in, instead of in the market wishing you were out".

16 thg 7, 2018

Ghi chú

I think it's important to stay calm and rational in times like this when every is becoming a bull. In the last two months the moves down have been pretty strong. Almost every move down was over 10%. When you compare those to the few recent moves up that has got the market excited, it's obvious that we could easily erode all gains with just one move down over a couple days.



By trading safely and not FOMO buying is how I've still made about 40% profit during this downtrend from $9900. This is without shorting. I just went long at certain points based on fractals, wedges and triangles.