2 possible counts and two targets (9300 & 10250)
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Count 1.1:
- target 9250 which is a 1 to 1 extension of wave 1 circled in black and it's also the target for the 5th wave within its 5th wave ( in the 5th wave circled in black, the 161% extension of wave 1 (small blue) is at 9300)
- what i do not like about this count is the fact that wave 3 did not even reach the 1 to 1 extension of wave 1 and we had a wave failure in wave 4 (circled in black)
- on a small time frame i see no other way to count the waves
Count 1.2:
- why? because on a higher time frame we can clearly see 2 waves (7250-9180, 9180 - 8280, circled in red) even though on a small time frame i can not find the 1-2-3-4-5 and A-B-C structures within them (assuming wave 2 ended, there is also a scenario where now we are creating wave B of wave 2 and C could send us lower than 8280, a break below the trend line could confirm this)
- assuming that count 1.1 is completely wrong, count 1.2 has the potential to reach at least 10240 (1 to 1 extension of wave a) but if we break the 10000 strong resistance we could go to the 161% extension of wave 1 at 11441 (i highly doubt it)
- on its way up it could form a rising wedge
- target 9250 which is a 1 to 1 extension of wave 1 circled in black and it's also the target for the 5th wave within its 5th wave ( in the 5th wave circled in black, the 161% extension of wave 1 (small blue) is at 9300)
- what i do not like about this count is the fact that wave 3 did not even reach the 1 to 1 extension of wave 1 and we had a wave failure in wave 4 (circled in black)
- on a small time frame i see no other way to count the waves
Count 1.2:
- why? because on a higher time frame we can clearly see 2 waves (7250-9180, 9180 - 8280, circled in red) even though on a small time frame i can not find the 1-2-3-4-5 and A-B-C structures within them (assuming wave 2 ended, there is also a scenario where now we are creating wave B of wave 2 and C could send us lower than 8280, a break below the trend line could confirm this)
- assuming that count 1.1 is completely wrong, count 1.2 has the potential to reach at least 10240 (1 to 1 extension of wave a) but if we break the 10000 strong resistance we could go to the 161% extension of wave 1 at 11441 (i highly doubt it)
- on its way up it could form a rising wedge
Ghi chú
Unfortunately this seems to be the scenario where wave 2 (circled in red) has not ended and now we are creating the C wave within it. I only wrote a few words about this in the comment above and i didn't drew it on the chart because i thought the sentiment was more bullish and i wasn't expecting to see such a long correction.
IF we go lower than 8280 my buying zones are:
- 100% extension of wave A @ 8150
- the golden pocket retrace level of the move up from 7.2k to 9.2k @ 7950 and the 0.786 retrace level @ 7650
IF we retrace as low as 7650 my goal will be to have a maximum average price of 7800 so my orders will not be equal.
All my analysis is based on the assumption that at 6k we started a new uptrend with a powerful move up of almost 100% (6k-11.8K) and its correction ended at 7.2k. If we get to 7650 and the buying volume is still low (under the average) i will start taking in consideration the possibility of an EW failure and possible lower lows than 7.2k.
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