BItcoin: Long Term Bullish Perspective 1W (May 18)

18 thg 5, 2020

X Force Global Analysis:


Bitcoin has shown incredible bullish momentum for the past few weeks. While we believe in Bitcoin's future for the long run, technical analysis suggests that it won't be an easy ride up. In this analysis, we look at bitcoin's weekly logarithmic chart, referencing reliable indicators and Elliott wave counts.

Analysis

- We use a logarithmic chart to not only respond to skewness towards large values, but also to show percent change or multiplicative factors
- The first thing we can spot is the triangle forming on the weekly chart
- We are looking at a potential bullish pennant pattern, that could break out leading us to all time highs
- The EMA (Exponential Moving Average) has been a good indicator for general trends
- The EMA Ribbon cross signals a change of trends, and we can notice that impulsive and corrective cycles are increasingly becoming shorter
- In terms of Elliott Wave counts, we can count Elliott Triangle Waves (ABCDE)
- Wave A took 364 days, wave B 196 days, wave C took 259 days
- We are currently completing wave D, which has taken 70 days so far
- The Stochastic Relative Strength Index (RSI) demonstrates that Bitcoin is approaching overbought levels, signaling potential reversals
- Should we see a trend reversal here, leading to a temporary bear trend, we could see the completion of Wave E before breaking out to test all time highs.


Market Sentiment:

The long short ratio is at 73 to 27, with significantly more long positions than shorts. The market sentiment is dominantly bullish at the moment.


What We Believe

We are positive that Bitcoin will one day break out to create new all time highs. While the bullish momentum is strong at the moment, according to indicators and Elliott Wave counts, we believe that one last correction before an actual breakout is highly probable, especially as we haven't managed to break and close over 10k levels yet.

Trade Safe.