World changing technologies only make sense on a log chart

27 thg 11, 2017

If you look at the latest price action over the last several months, it's amazing how much growth BTC is getting. It makes sense to look at other world changing technologies and how their stock prices have grown at times. Although everybody seems to have a different classification for Bitcoin, some call it a currency, some call it a commodity, some call it a security, some give it a new asset class. One thing is clear that amongst the various network effects giving Bitcoin a solid street value, speculation has been the primary factor driving price.

Before shouting "bubble" on Bitcoin, it's worthwhile to look at historical and current day stocks as a comparison of how things play out on highly speculative markets which involve world changing technologies.

• WMT
  
• NVDA
  
• AAPL
  
• TSLA
  
• GOOGL
  
• AMZN
  

All of these companies have seen meteoric rise in their stock prices without lasting retraces. Looking at Bitcoin, I see stock investors buying in, but beyond that I also see a whole new subset of millennials, myself included, who are coming in with very strong hands, and very bullish sentiments thinking about this as a long term investment. I get the same sentiment from every Bitcoin bull, they always say "if the price goes down, that's a great opportunity to accumulate." With a market surging with millions of young bulls using a deflationary currency who see every movement of the price up or down as a reason to buy, what does this say for the long term growth of Bitcoin?

I am not expecting any retraces which would take Bitcoin under $5000 at this point, even in the case of a non-lethal black swan event. Based on current global adoption rates and the massive base of very strong hands in the market, it's easy to project 4-20x growth again in 2018, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Bitcoin were at $200,000 by the end of 2018. That said, I also wouldn't be surprised if it were $5,000, so this is not a prediction, this is very uncharted territory and a typically volatile market, with great promise, amazing technology, amazing engineers and massive communities full of some of the most brilliant minds in technology rallying around it world-wide.

Considering new technologies, ten years ago who even had a smart phone? Do not underestimate the resiliency of blockchain, and the power that new generations of inventors have to change the world we live in with new technologies. Bitcoin is the natural growth of the internet having a root level impact on the global monetary system. If this growth continues, it's easy to see Bitcoin as the global digital settlement currency by 2030.