Bitcoin April 2018 Fractal, Amazing How They Do it

7 thg 5, 2020

Follow up on the April 2018 fractal, it went slightly different 2 days ago when it made that drop to 8800ish (that weak triangle breakout update i posted). But where it looked weak, bulls were eating up all the sell volume at that neckline of 8820. Now it's once again following the road map of the fractal.

At the moment it's pushing against the 9400ish resistance, and if that would break, curious to see what will happen next, if we will see something similar as the fractal is suggesting. Now i don't expect it to be 100% identical, small chance for that. But think it is important to see if momentum will drop and volume along with it if we would break up, because that would suggest the fractal might be in play.

While i am writing this, the first attempt just got rejected, dropping 100 points, but nothing meaningful yet, since most dips are getting bought lately.

Now i don't want to make any predictions still, but would think that if this break up fails, we could see a big correction happen. With failing i mean something like here below, so a break up, but than like a Bart move down, with 9250ish being a key support level. Think the triangle on both are real and that channel on the right is something to watch as well. Yesterday that channel broke, but they pumped it back in again quite fast again a few hours later.





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Previous analysis:

7 thg 5, 2020

Ghi chú

Another confirmation that channel is real, since it rejected the price once again. Would say, we dropped a bit too much from the high already, but no dump yet though. So think it might not be able to break up from that channel, so would think a sideways movement coming hours towards it's support again would probably be the best case scenario for the bulls here i think.

Looks as if we have a local range of 9420/9520 now

7 thg 5, 2020

Ghi chú

Looks like a triangle here, orange circles should be the targets for a break up or down

7 thg 5, 2020

Ghi chú

Wow thats a strong pump, just so clever how they do it, first dump it to shake out leveraged longs and then pump it up without a correction so people FOMO in again and push it higher.

Anyway, can't really say that the fractal is in play here now, the breakout seems to be too strong. Also the volume now is clearly different than we had then. Back then it was low, now its a clear increase. So think we can say, the fractal won't help us here.

The volume and price action (parabolic moves up on low time frame), are looking a lot like the big rally we had in the summer of 2019. So i don't dare to say what the next stop might be.

There are 2 possible targets, one is 9900ish which has been reached and the other one is around 10600 (the big triangle from past week, which is either a triangle or a bull flag).

7 thg 5, 2020

Ghi chú

The triangle here on the left. We can also see that it broke that channel upwards, bit surprised to see that though. Now normally that is a sign of strength, but that does mean it can not come close anymore to channel, let alone drop back in again.

Now if the target is 9900, that would mean that coming day or so, we should see price move around like 9600/10000. Look back at the 10500 from few months ago. There i also gave a possible target zone around 10400/600 i think, based on that bullish wedge we had then, which is a bit similar to the current triangle. So something important to keep in mind. If those would be the same, would mean we should pump even more to the higher target around 10.600. But if you would have asked me a few weeks ago, what if we touch 10.500 again? I would probably Bull Market. Since it has been tested several times now and after everything Bitcoin went through past 2 months, would be unlikely to see it just dump big again after reaching 10.500ish again.

But time will tell, for now i am still just watching this.

8 thg 5, 2020

Ghi chú

Looks like that channel is still real, the one on the right. Seeing how it gets support from it's former resistance. Now this situation, normally are very tricky, the closer it comes, the more often it gets tested, the bigger the chances become that it falls back in again. So bulls need to push it up soon again. Just had a wick down, but as most of the times past weeks, it goes up in a V shape again.

So what i can say is, we have what looks like a neckline (so you can call it an H&S). For it to become a bear trap, usually has to make a higher low, like it just did, so stay above the blue zone. When it touches the neckline (green zone, chances for a drop become bigger then.

Also drawn a potential bull flag, so even if the neckline would break, but doesnt dump and stay inside the bull flag, it will still become a trap prob.

So think range is around 9700 and 10.000 now. If one of those break, but we get no real follow through, it could come back in the range again.

8 thg 5, 2020

Ghi chú

Looks like the flag broke, but it's struggling it seems, seeing what looks like a real fight. There is some room and time left, but think the longer it takes, the weaker it might become. First support around 9940 and 9900ish. Think key level is 9800ish.

Above 9940ish, momentum is for the bulls on this time frame. Below it neutral i thinkup to 9800ish

9 thg 5, 2020

Ghi chú

Seems this channel was the best thing to follow, several touches again today and yesterday, testing it as support outside of it yesterday as mentioned yesterday, dropping inside of it, then testing it as resistance again and now at it's support