bitcoin is trading below weekly ma200

15 thg 6, 2022

Bitcoin is currently trading below the 200 week ma. I didnt expect this to happen so quickly personally. But its what it is, seems like there is a lot of forced selling in the market from leveraged positions which got caught off guard. It shows that even low leverage has massive risk if the market goes down sharply in this case over 50% and especially when funds are locked longer term and it's collateral is droping in value.

As a spot trader the drawdown is horrible for me but at least dont face liquidation risk, I went through this in 2014 and 2018 already, emotionally its really tough but we need to stay rational in decision making.

In the past, bitcoin bottomed around the weekly ma200 but had wicks below it up to -30%.
The problem I see is that buyers prefer to dca in during bear markets and not buying large sums at once therefore there is maybe not enough liquidity on the buyside to buy up all the liquidations until its a nobrainer buy, which I dont know if it is already.

What I know is that bitcoin was designed to last forever, price will go up and down, there is no central bank to plunge protect or bail out anybody, only honest buyers which will step in at some point and then it will be a healthy market again. Usually bear markets bottom when everybody would like to buy but nobody really got cash left to buy. The big question is this now or will it be up to -30% below the weekly ma200?

I wish all my followers to survive this phase and keep around, tourist will leave crypto but those who stay will be rewarded. Important is to not lose it all but ideally come out with more btcs at the end of this bear market.

4 thg 7, 2022

Ghi chú

bitcoin entered the deep red phase on weekly timeframe which only happened two times before.
weekly and monthly rsi hit a new all time low.

so btc looks strongly oversold on a historic perspective

2 thg 11, 2022

Ghi chú

monthly closed with a star candle similar to march 2019

13 thg 11, 2022

Ghi chú

The market seemed ready to bounce but the mess with ftx/alameda hit like a black swan.
When the dust settles, it will be clear who else is affected. At low tide we will see who wears no clothes. So to be safe from contagion its important to hold most of your crypto in self custody.
This is an awful event and many lost a lot. Crypto prices were already hit hard and getting another punch while laying on ground.
Nevertheless bad players get washed out and we as a industry have the chance to build a more healthy and resilient system.

14 thg 12, 2022

Ghi chú

the market is quietly moving up a little during the last weeks, my view is that if btc breaks 18600 that there is a good chance to bounce to 22k~
This would retrace the whole ftx related drop and could lead to further upside. Watching closely.

11 thg 1, 2023

Ghi chú

btc trying to leave the weekly deep red phase again to bounce. it has tried it before but then got destroyed by the ftx event. if no other bad news hit, btc has a good chance to finally bounce.

15 thg 2, 2023

Ghi chú

Tourists have not yet returned, Google Trends showing little search interest yet. Strong hands have been accumulating.

14 thg 3, 2023

Ghi chú

bitcoin breaking back above the 200 week moving average

1 thg 4, 2023

Ghi chú

very similar sginals here

21 thg 4, 2023

Ghi chú

bitcoin pulled back after hitting the weekly target of 29-32k, it seems likely to retest the weekly ma200. Then we will be able to figure out if we get a boost in confidence holding above it or if we go into a long sideways market.

12 thg 5, 2023

Ghi chú

bitcoin is retesting the weekly ma200 as support