“History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes” –Mark Twain

6 thg 2, 2021

The similarities are uncanny... almost to the month; almost to the percent.

We are currently sitting at the baseline of the Fibonacci trend. It's entirely possible that we see a prolonged, steady growth as we continue the predominant trend, as we did in 2016. However, I think it's more likely that we see a steep ramp up as interest grows. After the 2011 ATH, it took 6 months to find a bottom, 20 months to return to the same level and then 9 months to reach a new ATH. The 2013 market took 14 months to hit bottom from ATH, 25 months to break through and then 10 months to reach the next ATH. Most recently, it took us 23 months to bottom and 12 weeks to break the 2017 ATH. If we follow this pattern along with a lower Fibonacci level as occurred last time, then it's not unreasonable to project that we will see ~300k sometime in November/December this year.

I'm not a trader. I'm not a pro. I don't have a crystal ball. I'm in for the long haul. I believe in the value of cryptocurrency and I'm excited about the infrastructure that is being built up to support a decentralized economy. Attention and adoption are still relatively low, historically speaking. Many people remember what happened in 2017 with the hype and the crash. I expect many are reluctant to jump back in; particularly if they lost money. As mainstream media attention grows, more investors will pile on and the hype cycle will begin again. Right now, we can look back and see a nice steady growth with a few (big) bumps along the way. Will crypto crash again? More than likely unless we get massive widespread adoption on this cycle. Otherwise we explode up, come crashing down and repeat the cycle again until we use crypto like we use the internet...