BTCUSD: Last call for Bitcoin under 70000.

4 thg 4

The price range around the 2021 high, then the ATH, of around 69000 has been the battle field for an entire month. It certainly has been worth it, for it brought a new all-time high even before the bitcoin halving for the first time in BTC’s history, and it will be marked in the market cycle as a significant milestone to provide a strong base of support.

But times are changing. The number of days and weeks of five-digit bitcoin prices are waning. Likely the market may never see prices in the 60000 range again, at least not in the longer term. With prices of this cycle reaching as high as 600 thousand dollars, even an 80 % market decline may not reach this low again ever.

So, with BTC having just regained its 200 MA on the 4H chart, and recapturing the 2021 high, the train is leaving the station for coins under 70000.

See you at the top.

8 thg 4

Ghi chú

Bitcoin is near to be closing out the sixty thousands range. I am not yet certain that this little green wave will be the exit wave, but the market is moving upward in its long-term trend channel. As one reader notes, these lines are of significance, and so the direction cannot be denied. The trend is your friend.

8 thg 4

Ghi chú

Trading does not make much of a bullish impression here yet. The correction after the fifth wave may not have found its end, despite the slight uptrend.
We know there are a lot of sell orders on top of this range, probably up to 75k, which compresses prices ahead.

8 thg 4

Ghi chú

It only took another wave in the correction to ignite this market.
71000++
Departed for higher grounds.

8 thg 4

Ghi chú

Status report:
Will BTC make 100000 by halving date?

8 thg 4

Ghi chú

Market is only 1800 points away from a new all-time high. This could fall in an hour or two. Perhaps during the solar eclipse, when bears are sleeping and short-sellers can’t see their charts in darkness.

9 thg 4

Ghi chú

What looked like a quick start to a new ascend, has turned into a pullback. But now that this first wave is complete, the market has shown the explanation.
Tunes out that the trading from the low of wave ((ii)) is a leading diagonal. Leading diagonals have a large overlap between waves one and four, meaning the fourth wave pulls down to below the top of wave one, into wave two. Such diagonals most often experience a deep retrace, and that’s exactly what BTC presented to us. The tricky aspect here was to correctly identify the situation early enough before entering long positions, if not already long. I didn’t see it either, because I didn’t take the first wave seriously, leaving open the possibility it could still belong to the previous down trend.

In this chart, the leading diagonal is underlined with the black trend line.
The wave, especially in wave five in the center was not trivial to infer, but assignment was helped grestly by the Fibonacci ratios.

9 thg 4

Ghi chú

Overall this actually looks very bullish. Diagonals like this are often followed by enormous impulses. Notice that the entire wave was slanted on an ascending base line, steeper than the Fibonacci trend channel.
Since the diagonal represents an entire wave one of larger degree, the retrace is wave two, and the following up-wave is already wave three, the most powerful of a generation.

9 thg 4

Ghi chú

This is probably a good and safe entry point, with a stop loss set to just a tick below the final low, or below the four-hour SMA 200.

10 thg 4

Ghi chú

At the bottom of the retrace, another diagonal has formed to lead off the new wave three.
Notice that the 200 period moving average on 4-hour scale has successfully supported the wave, as I suggested earlier.
With that, BTC is approaching the 70000 mark once again. Will this be the last time?

10 thg 4

Ghi chú

The market has topped 71000 briefly, along with the concept proposed. The pull-down of a couple hours today was a bit strange. It looks like a news event noise spike, as it was quickly reverted, with continuation of prior trend. Inflation news?

11 thg 4

Ghi chú

Based on the market behavior today, I have finally settled on a new structure model of this entire market top.

The bullish wave yesterday had all the punch of a D-wave in an Elliott triangle, but then stopped unexpectedly and turned south for a deep retracement. I commented that this was a leading diagonal, but that structure is very close to just a corrective subwave, having half motive, half corrective character.
The retrace turned out to be a three-wave, given the extra swing down that was quickly recovered. Thus all is very reminiscent of the exit out of a triangle.
And that is what we have here.

Of course quite a few traders here have drawn triangles for this top. But they are all wrong, and none have fulfilled their projections. I have in private also contemplated a triangle of course, but I have had several models to work with, waiting for the price action to fit. That has finally happened.

The result is a large double combination correction, WXY, as shown in this chart. It has the triangle in the second, final component.

11 thg 4

Ghi chú

I started a new topic for this new assignment.

12 thg 4

Ghi chú

The 69 k coins are sold out. Time to move on.
If you have any left, I’ll be a buyer. I am a collector too.