BTC ABC-correction
I wanted to quickly share the idea that when looking at the daily chart of BTC it seems like we are entering a ABC-correction. 5 very nice waves have been formed with almost perfect visible sub-waves structure.
I think that wave A will be strong enough to go all the way up to the big yellow trend line that has shown to be a major resistance in this bear market. My guess for Wave A would be retrace around the .786 level of the Fibonacci retracements. I don't think wave A can break through the big downtrend line, momentum is just not there yet. Wave B can and I think will go down to at least the white line, the 100% Fibonacci retracement support. The RSI has been at a considerable low of 31 and got rejected twice to break through the critical level of 30, showing supporting signs of a coming upside in form of wave A. Moreover, we see the histogram on the MACD is flattening out and has not much room left before the reversal. All of this gives reason to believe the bears are losing their strength.
Following up on the ABC-correction, with the end of wave B it seems we would also come to an end of the big Triangle formation formed by the 2 big yellow lines. A good timing to gather momentum and see BTC finally break out of the seemingly never-ending downtrend channel. First target would be the red .618 Fibo. Wave C will be strong and push the RSI up to the major resistance that we have now failed to break 3 times. Once this resistance will be broken, we can finally consider BTC to be in a bull market again. When that happens is questionable, and before we even break out of the big triangle formation to start that little rally towards the 60 levels of the RSI, it will take stil quite some time, maybe even until May-June. BTC has seen a tremendous development over the last year, especially towards the end. A crash/correction was just a matter of time.
On this chart however, it seems the crash is coming to an end and BTC is reaching healthier and more stable price regions. We also have to acknowledge that after a breakout of the big downtrend channel BTC can very well even move sideways for another month with the upper resistance of the sideways channel being the red .618 Fibo, the same level as the strong 60 RSI. Things don't happen over night.
I think that wave A will be strong enough to go all the way up to the big yellow trend line that has shown to be a major resistance in this bear market. My guess for Wave A would be retrace around the .786 level of the Fibonacci retracements. I don't think wave A can break through the big downtrend line, momentum is just not there yet. Wave B can and I think will go down to at least the white line, the 100% Fibonacci retracement support. The RSI has been at a considerable low of 31 and got rejected twice to break through the critical level of 30, showing supporting signs of a coming upside in form of wave A. Moreover, we see the histogram on the MACD is flattening out and has not much room left before the reversal. All of this gives reason to believe the bears are losing their strength.
Following up on the ABC-correction, with the end of wave B it seems we would also come to an end of the big Triangle formation formed by the 2 big yellow lines. A good timing to gather momentum and see BTC finally break out of the seemingly never-ending downtrend channel. First target would be the red .618 Fibo. Wave C will be strong and push the RSI up to the major resistance that we have now failed to break 3 times. Once this resistance will be broken, we can finally consider BTC to be in a bull market again. When that happens is questionable, and before we even break out of the big triangle formation to start that little rally towards the 60 levels of the RSI, it will take stil quite some time, maybe even until May-June. BTC has seen a tremendous development over the last year, especially towards the end. A crash/correction was just a matter of time.
On this chart however, it seems the crash is coming to an end and BTC is reaching healthier and more stable price regions. We also have to acknowledge that after a breakout of the big downtrend channel BTC can very well even move sideways for another month with the upper resistance of the sideways channel being the red .618 Fibo, the same level as the strong 60 RSI. Things don't happen over night.
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