IF we get the first uptrend of 2018.

19 thg 7, 2018

Cool I am posting a crypto idea after I said I ignore it. Again. That's what being slave to volatility is :D
Nothing is happening elsewhere anyway... Everything is sideways (of what I watch) except soybean futures.
I watch 21 FX pairs every single one is non trending. The bankers are on holidays zzzz.

Some commodities moving a bit, I think gold is sideways, & I gave up on Oil for now.

Guess crypto is one of the few I have left :D

What do people do? Personally I started playing video games after a 6 months break.

Here, you can see since the 01 01 2018, there has not been a single uptrend supported by investors, only short term FOMO by traders and noobs (idk how to call them, gamblers perhaps or pump chasers).


Opposite of 2017: Almost all the time in an uptrend, just a few periods of tightening and uncertainty.


On this idea I post exactly what to look for to be able to state Bitcoin is in an uptrend with 100% certainty.

See? Told you I would be the first to know if Bitcoin actually started an uptrend, and unlike delusional bulls I don't end up being right after repeating the same nonsense every day for months until I happen to be right :)

For now, wait and see, and of course still short it on 7800 resistance (more or less).
Personally I believe an uptrend is possible, it has been 7 months for *** sake.

If there is a solid uptrend I will go long on retraces, and only short at 9-10k if I see bearish divergence.

The similarities with 2015 are also still pretty shocking :


Looking at last bear market first uptrend:


Followed by 200 days of nothing but downtrend, or more precisely a BIG investor sell-off, a break of a few days as investors stop selling they breathe a bit, then BOOM! Next mega sell off:


2nd uptrend in the last bear market, if it can even be considered that:


And then the 1rst legit good looking uptrend in a year, I bet very few people noticed it "another sucker rally":



Reminder: Bitcoin still bearish long term. This bear market probably last twice as long as 2014-2015 considering Bitcoin does not just fade out...

21 thg 7, 2018

Ghi chú

Ooooooh here come the regret.
I wanted to short all in on 0.618 fib for weeks then I decided to play it safe & scale.
:'(

Ok there are 2 possibilities:
1rst is EW failure and we go up hard.


2nd is ... rest in piece crypto cult:


Probably get easilly a 15% bounce on 5000$.

23 thg 7, 2018

Ghi chú

Cool. I will trust my gut feeling more often.

My short will get liquidated if BTC goes too high.
That is the complicated thing.
If I close it and price drops I lose money (right now it is smaller than my BMX account so if the price drops I lose a little, goes up I make a little), I do not want to reduce the leverage, but maybe that is what I end up doing.

I really hope the price goes all the way to 8600$
I probably scale again but I bet the level will get overcut once more.

23 thg 7, 2018

Ghi chú

This is not very convincing...
But not so much I would short it. 50/50 let's see what price manipulation gives us.

24 thg 7, 2018

Ghi chú

Crossover and compress of moving averages is happening.

Going to take a few days to quit the 7500-7900 range I believe.

24 thg 7, 2018

Ghi chú

Daily RSI at the highest it has been since the big bull of 2017.


I can see it happening the big mean pessimist bear saw the 1rst uptrend of 2018 before anyone else :)

That would be very funny, as well as a good lesson for some perma bulls.

24 thg 7, 2018

Ghi chú

Getting close to weekly 50MA (the big red one). Watch out.

24 thg 7, 2018

Ghi chú

Has to retrace thought.

8500 looks like a good bet to short it.

25 thg 7, 2018

Ghi chú

If this week or next one closes above this channel, price can go to 12000 easy.
At least 10k should not be a too big problem.

I don't think it is a great idea to short it before 10k now unless it goes back to 8500-9000 resistance soon. Certainly not if it goes back up after a decent retrace now that it BARELY got up there.
Since we hit big resistances that could also be the top so anyone already short might see a hefty profit.

29 thg 7, 2018

Ghi chú

Since I was obviously right once again, next question is what will it be, A or B?


This dumb crap is so obvious big accounts are going to massively get in and overcut supports and resistances so that makes it less interesting...

It is like arbitrage somehow.
Anytime there are easy profits to be made every one jumps on it and it just gets less interesting.
This is why I am not sharing my secrets what I found, it's all for me and me only, no one figured out what I figured out, so I don't have to share with suckers.

Find a niche or something.
Find something no one is interested in, and then you can make it big.
Just all fighting over a lame bone, rofl whats the point.
I prefer the whole animal.

Lmao crypto first you have the bubbly wave of buying suckers then you have the bubble of traders (and also the waves of mass selling).
Bubble magnet.

30 thg 7, 2018

Ghi chú

Well...




If BTC manages to beat 9000 and the moving averages keep going exactly as I have drawn, I'll be bull with target 12000.

Did you know Friedman LLP got subpoena'd? (not just Bitfinex), if we run into 12k with bad news about this this ought to be funny :)

We can also go up with bearish divergence but I am biased towards bull for now.
Not going long (well technically I am long but very little) as I only buy at support at the moment, too newb and lazy to trade another way.

Only if BTC drops around 7500 am I closing my partial hedge short & going long.
Otherwise it is just not optimal. Mmmm 7500 would actually be pretty juicy, just got to cross fingers there is no big FUD news.

Trading currencies at least I don't have to worry about these news... There's never anything unexpected and it does not result in massive panic selling by dumbasses :D

But some people make a lot of money only trading the panic selling on news in crypto (and stock too I heard).

4 thg 8, 2018

Ghi chú

That's it we are in the "investor" support area.
Now we see where their allengences lie.

Even if they do not provide large support, and there is no uptrend (but I think there is going to be one), there should at least be a decent bounce of 5-10%

4 thg 8, 2018

Ghi chú

When crypto shows signs of strength & we hit support & there are very good news, and this time the good news are not accompanied by a pump, what does that tell you?
DIS???
Try guessing it.
Dis...be...
LIEF!

Pure disbelief (not an ath call, not a long term bull market call).

We are clearly in disbelief, point of maximum financial opportunity.
Since I think we can still go down, its a point of opportunity, but short term, with a small chance this goes to another bull market, slowly.

sludgefeed.com/crypto-week-in-review-bitcoin-drops-bakkt-fails-to-inspire/

The concept is the same everywhere (in investing).
Everyone wants a brand new house, the new shiny innovative investment, so these things ALWAYS, absolutely ALWAYS, get overvalued.
And they have the lowest ROI.

The crappy 50 year old simple farm, no one wants to buy it, no one cares, they want the latest shinny toy. But the farm is still very valuable, only difference is no one wants it. So you get it at a discount according to its value.

What is best (random examples, but the values are probably close to reality)?

A) Getting a shiny house fully made of glass with a big swimming pool, pointless gargoyle statues etc, that you buy for $5 million and rent 10.000$ a month, so 120.000$ a year (2.4% ROI yearly), OR

B) Buy a 2000 acre old piece of land in a "shitty" area (totally uncool no "hot" places around), fully equiped for 5 million dollar, if I am not mistaken this you can find.
You just pay people to farm basic stuff. Corn, wheat, whatever.
2000 acre, your profit minus expenses salaries etc is let's say 200$ / acre flat (can be more can be less but you're smart and hedge yourself with CME)
==> 400.000$.

Which one is best?


Look, america most expensive house price can't find buyers, and it's price dropped by 60 million.
Most garbage investment for those that made it.
mansionglobal.com/articles/america-s-most-expensive-home-gets-62-million-discount-94386

They are not saying how much it cost to produce thought. Too lazy to go search for it.
These are news so they will never tell anything usefull, hbut just flash shinny pictures and numbers to get morons excited so they read their article. Hey, once again, same concept, the herd wants shinny flashy stuff.

Investing is about generating passive income, you do not care if something is flashy and new, or old, you are here to buy something undervalued and get great ROI for it, the best possible.

Here, there is no passive income, and this is trading not investing, but it works the same, kinda. Buy something when, for example, no one wants it, ALOT of longs got stopped/liquidated (I bet it is billions, some huge longs for hundr"eds of millions got liqudiated, that alone is alot) which drops the price even more, and there is good news that DID not get priced in.

7 thg 8, 2018

Ghi chú

Forget it. Complacency is soon over. A move up is not totally impossible, but the odds are getting smaller and smaller. It will just be an opportunity to short this disgusting ponzi above 8000$ before MASSIVE downside.



This is exactly what is going to happen:
twitter.com/I_HOPE_BOT_WINS/status/1010276262915567621

The noise does not matter, ultimate fate is 3 digit.

All hope is gone. Do NOT bet on Bitcoin.

I made a new idea, well there is nothing special there... Nothing new.
Ok 1 thing is new: I think we are soon moving out of complacency.
FINALLY.

23 thg 8, 2018

Ghi chú

I cannot believe this idea is over 1 month old - WOW.

Remember this?


This totally not manipulated market is so emotional, and they are so many FOMO shorters, and no regulation no punishment for crooks, why should they not take advantage?


See?