Bitcoin's reactions after new ATH

1 thg 12, 2017

I am looking to find correlations of bull/bear trends after new ATH.

1 thg 12, 2017

Ghi chú

September Crash:
Known as the China Crash (Uncertainty about crypto legality in China)
We saw a drop in the price of 39% and this in a period of 14 days.

Late October crack down:
BTC saw a value drop of 12% in 4 days. This happened around the Bitcoin Gold fork.

Novermeber fall:
Segwit2x was cancelled resulting in a major value loss (22% after 7 days).

1 thg 12, 2017

Ghi chú

What happened to BTC after setting the milestone of 1000$?

In early January 2017, BTC passed the 1st time above the 1000$ mark.
The following 2 days BTC continued it's rise and had a high at 1175.
After the new ATH, BTC immediatley had big losses (-30% in 7 days) resulting in a prize of +-780$.

1 thg 12, 2017

Ghi chú

RSI interpretation:

After new ATH we can see on the RSI chart that the line was in the overbought area (+70) and falling in the following days down to the oversold area (30).
Back in tiem the price was constantly falling down after reaching the oversold area.

1 thg 12, 2017

Ghi chú

MACD interpretation:

Using both the RSI and the MACD we can see that the rise and the fall of the price can be observed after we had a crossover of the MACD in the oversold/overbought area.

1 thg 12, 2017

Ghi chú

Conclusion:

The BTC price has no real reason to fall, there are no major bad news, I think it's the exact opposite, we got one good news after the other for BTC.
Traditionally we can see that price dropped 20% and 40% after major bad news, currently we are at -13% without bad news!

Looking at the MACD and the RSi we can conclude that the prize will continue it's downfall. Neither MACD is going to cross in the next hours nor is the RSI finding itself in the oversold area.

I think the best interpretation can be made if we look at the 1000$. Same as 1000$, 10k$ represents a psychological level, many investors look at it as a major mark and will sell their BTC and looking forward to claim their profit. An other reason the psychological level consists is due to all the "pro" traders, they tell the novice traders about that magical psychological level and how price may crack down after reaching the mark. Naturally the novice traders will sell fearing for their profit and this will result in a major crack down.
So I would the price will at most drop back to the 7800, which was already a resistance zone, approx. 30% loss after the ATH and represents the 0.618 Fibonacci level.

1 thg 12, 2017

Ghi chú

Why will BTC come back and won't face a major setback?

There have yet not been big companies or funds who acquired BTC, this month CME will enter the market with their futures, new money will flow to the BTC and we will see new highs for sure.

Nowadays many people know about BTC contrary to last year, however few have access to it or know how to acquire them, if more people will be able to enter the market we will see an other raise.

But the most important reason is that cryptocurrency is a new idea, the decentralization of our money and the blockchain constitute a new mechanism, maybe BTC will fail in the long future (but not in the near future) and be replaced by a better and more performed cryptocurrency. The concept will change our commercial world and therefore it is the main reason why BTC won't crash in the near future.