Downside scenario is still valid

21 thg 7, 2023

Morning folks,

I've prepared but forgot to place update yesterday... So, as we've mentioned in recent two weeks, BTC seems has not enough power to proceed upward action immediately. Recent reactions, and inability to join other markets with CPI rally tells, that downside pullback scenario still stands on the table.

Last time we've discussed perfect engulfing pattern on daily chart, and possible downside AB-CD, based on it. Target is the same around 28-28.5K area which is the support on 4H chart.

Now, on 1H chart we see that upside bounce, based on H&S is over (yesterday it was still in progress), and we consider 2nd leg of extension down.

Theoretical chances exist that BTC could try to touch 5/8 resistance first, showing more extended upside bounce, before downside leg starts, but right now we do not see sighs of it, because H&S is done. If even this will happen, I mean 5/8 bounce, it doesn't change the core of scenario with large AB-CD downside pattern, but, just will change slightly the starting point.