Take it with a grain of salt, but I'm not bullish yet...

15 thg 1, 2020

I'm not a professional trader and this is not financial advice. However, one thing that doesn't make me bullish yet, is simply the volume. You can pretty easily identify bullish phases from bearish phases by looking at the green histogram candles of volume. In a bullish phase, you will see higher highs and in bearish phases lower lows.

Trend lines and all are nice to look at, but volume has been on the decline since last year's high. Open up Youtube and you get spammed by dozens of uber-bullish videos calling for 20K before the halving. Contrarian indicator?

This is also the 3rd attempted rally in the descending channel which has, every time, been greeted by a massive sell-off.

Even though we broke out of that channel yesterday, there has still not been a higher high on the volume. Unless some new money comes in, this will run out of steam pretty soon.

Still believe a retest of the lower 8k or below is possible.

Take it with a grain of salt and for what it is.

16 thg 1, 2020

Ghi chú

As an update to the above chart. Case for a bullish scenario is that the 21, 100 and 200 EMA on the daily chart are converging. Historically when:

1. The 21 crosses the 100
2. The price holds the 21 as support
3. The 21 crosses the 200

We have seen massive gains. Last year up 240%. So you could argue that the next few days will be decisive.

Case for a bearish scenario:
1. None of the above have realized just yet
2. The breakout of the last few days is STILL a lower high!
3. As mentionned yesterday, the volume isn't that impressive. It looks like sellers and buyers are battling it out and the sellers are still winning at the moment

As to what happens, it's anyone's guess. If you're in it for the very long term, there's no reason to hope and wait for the price to drop again as it may never happen. If you're just in it for the quick buck, I'd be careful as this can go back down as quickly as it went up.

16 thg 1, 2020

Ghi chú

Here's what I would like to see:



We've bounced of the lower very long trend line twice where we formed an inverse head/shoulder pattern.

If we get rejected as it looks like right now, your target for accumulating before we shoot higher is a convergence between the descending channel and that lower trendline, so anything around the 8000$ mark.

Ideally I'd like to see the upper channel trend line acting as support, form another inverse shoulder/head pattern where it'll be time to accumulate as we bounce of the lower historical trendline again and then we moon higher and never look back.

This would essentially coincide with Bitcoin's halving which again, has historically led the price to new highs as bitcoin's supply per block is cut in half.

23 thg 1, 2020

Ghi chú

Looks like we're headed for 8K and lower, approching what I would consider a good buy zone.