New scary Fractal for Bitcoin, looks like a Drop again

30 thg 4, 2018

I have been posting my other fractal for almost a week. It had guided me to almost 100% perfection during most of the small waves. But now it's starting to fail. The fractal said we should have gone towards the 10.500 and untill yesterday ot was following it's path almost 100% in a identical way, but the last few hours it is starting to fail. Seems Bitcoin wants to follow a new Fractal now. This one is from a month ago, when we rallied from the 7250 to the 9200 and made a lower high at 9000 before dropping to the 6400 a few weeks ago. So before everyone gets scared again or calling me crazy, Most fractals fail after a certain point, just like the previous one (that is almost failing).

For now this fractal is just telling me we will probably drop towards the 8900 again and depending on what it will do there we can judge what it will de next. And to be really honoust, this is not the usual fractal, it's actually more just a rising wedge (the one i warned about yesterday). Bulls tried to fight it off by trying to make another high, but they failed and the first important (short term) support at 9200 has been broken. Bulls can fight it off if they are able to bring it back up above the 9200/9300 again.

Next to all of this, i have noticed more and more people are starting to look up again on the short term, and that is bothering me as well. Even my contra indicators here on TV was looking up the last few days ( and no, i am not going to tell who they are, it's disrespectful). My game plan was to go short around 10.200/10.300 (because i assumed the market would be to weak to reach it's target of 10.500, but the way it looks now, think we won't make it any more.

the biggest hope for the bulls, is that the triangle i showed a few days ago is still in play, the support line of this formation is around 9000 now. So there is still a chance that we go up from there. But my guess is we going to drop from here since several pumped Alts also are being dumped now. I think the conductors of these markets are giving up already.

I don't have any other clear signals or levels, because i was in a hurry to write this one down before it was to late. I have posted a few updates the past hour tat it was looking very bad (around 9250) but since the first support around 9200 already broke, i had to hurry. I will complete this analysis later on and will try to give more direction's as well

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My previous analysis

30 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

My last updates from my previous analysis:


an hour ago
Comment: Things are not looking so good, Fractal is still in play, but chances are smaller now. Will try to set up a new analysis soon
44 minutes ago
Comment: I think we will drop towards the 8900 again, looking at this picture it confirms it. Thing thats bothering me, to many people here are looking above the 10K right now. A few days ago i said the same that my contra indicator was looking up all of a sudden, i did not like that. now it does not work for each move of course, but mostly does at the end of a move. So i wish i did not now about him, but it hard to ignore :)

30 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

Nr 1 and 2 are targets for the wedge. Difficult to say which one it will be though, i hope it will be the first one and that we find support there again to go higher. But sentiment has maybe turned to bullish already

30 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

A zoom in of the above picture. Target of that bear flag at 9300 is already reached! So it could be a turning point, but the on the this time frame, the 9200/9250 is the level that needs to be broken soon, otherwise it could make another small bear flag below the neckline

30 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

Bulls are fighting back, got above the 9200. Not in the clear yet, but they have killed the speed of the drop. If they manage to get above the 9300 than things can cool down again

30 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

Just in case if some of you are wondering why i have changed my mind, i didn't but the chart seems to be telling me that!

For the ones who don't remember my update from yesterday:

Comment: So far the 9200 is holding, can’t really help you guys now. Look at the chars above, for the support and resistance area’s. So far it looks like a big bearish wedge where we dropped out of.

There are 2 options. The fractal is still in play as long as we stay above 9200 (maybe also 9100) so we could just be going up slowly again.

Other option is, even if we go up, watch out for a lower high around 9400/9500, if that happens, than we could see an acceleration downwards. Could mean we will start wave C of an abc correction. Alts are also. So fingers on the triggers :)


..............
So just to be clear, we are on the 50 yard line now (meaning in the middle of support and resistance). So we could go both ways, but for the short term it is much more likely we go lower from here. I can't give you targets for the whole because they are not there yet. So far i can only give a drop towards 8900/9000. Even though the market is showing some signs of weakness now on the low time frame, when you zoom out a bit it is still VERY strong. So mixed signals making it difficult to determine a strategy for this week. At the moment IMO going lower has bigger chance of succeeding. When i judge it objectively, we should have already been higher since we broke that triangle a few days back. A retest of the support is usually what happens, but when it takes to long it could be the market is hesitating and that is/could be a first sign of weakness. Also judging on what i said yesterday, making a lower high, could mean we will see that wave downwards now. Everything above 8700/8600 is still bullish for the med term. A break of that level could mean something else is going on. Unfortunately volatility has dropped again, which makes it more difficult to predict the direction of the market. So at the moment, my biggest hope is that we start to see bigger movements again no matter which direction

30 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

So the bulls are fighting back as i said earlier, it looks like they found support from the old support line of that triangle (i extended it with that purple line). Could be a coincidence, but it could also mean that the triangle has changed and become a bigger one now. There is not much to add right now, all we can do is hope for a breakout on either side and that the market will show it's hand and break out of this sideways movement.

I don't have much time to update today but i will try when i can

30 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

Bulls seem to be taken it over again, making one small bull flag after the other. This looks like the action we had around the 800/8200 and around the 8800. That means these movements are confusing, so it could go both ways. A breakout of that bigger triangle will hopefully give more volatility again so the market will choose its direction. Alts are also giving mixed signals, some very bullish, some showing top formations

30 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

If Bulls get it above 8350, they might be able to trigger a small inverse H&S from the move today. I am not really convinced off this pattern, seems to controlled. But if they do manage it would mean a breakout of that triangle. I am waiting on the sideline, I don’t trust these moves

30 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

8350 is of course 9350. Because of this side ways I get sleepy :)

We had a few days of good volatility last week and that was it. I said it a while back and I am going to say it again, I really fear that the charm of this market, at least of Bitcoin is over. All we can do is hope this is all a phase.

So we got over the 9350, but because it is going up so slowly it has no meaning at all!! We need to see a fight between Bulls and bears, need to see volume and jumps in price to be able to make solid predictions (like I was able to do a week ago). This price action is just to controlled and manipulation factor is just to high.

For now we can only hope, that if we see a breakout of that triangle, that we see some real movement. But be aware of a false breakout!

30 thg 4, 2018

Ghi chú

I just went short at 9240 with a stop around 9450, small position! Alts are showing more weakness than before so chances have increased that we do make a drop. Not saying we will make a big drop now, just thinking we will make a correction at least

1 thg 5, 2018

Ghi chú

So the first target has been reached of the wedge around 8900. It was quite the drop and it's making a bear flag at the moment, so big chance we see at least some follow through. Because it ALSO fell out of that big triangle, but i don't give that formation much weight anymore.

1 thg 5, 2018

Ghi chú

If this flag breaks, it could mean we break that important support level around 8700 since the target is below that support. But In crypto we see allot of flags being invalidated, depends on what the whales are planing to do

1 thg 5, 2018

Ghi chú

This bear flag might break soon, looking kind of weak this time. Think we go lower unless bulls show there are not gone and make a fast 100/200 point rally

1 thg 5, 2018

Ghi chú

So the flag broke and making a drop downwards to the important support around 8700/8800. This level has to hold, if this one breaks easily, this could mean we have set the high for now and could be dropping towards the 7800 this week. Not saying it will, just planing ahead to be ready for certain moves.

Don't forget to like if you appreciate what i am doing. I think some of you are afraid i will get to much exposure if i get to much likes :). With 25% of the followers a month i used to get much more likes than now. This crypto world makes everyone paranoid LOL :). The smartest thing the creators did with crypto, making it 24/7. It keeps everyone on edge 24/7, restless and not thinking straight at certain times. I am convinced it's part of the strategy to make it 24/7

1 thg 5, 2018

Ghi chú

New analysis