Statistically halving date price has been after cycle bottom between relief rally top and higher low (with current setup it would be around 26k).
Next BTC halving on 26th of April 24'.
US BTC SPOT ETF approval is one of the biggest triggers to follow. It will either spark the Green Option if it happens rather soon OR then it will be the trigger that turns the tide with the Red Option.
ETH could change everything by moving from Prince to King and stepping over BTC. Will it happen during the next cycle.. that's something I don't even dare to guess.
It's good to note that at this point majority of Indicators and oscillators are pointing down AND there has been a good run up YTD with BTC. While there definitely would be a lot of reasons to visit on the downside before running up towards halving date.. BTC does have the tendency to surprise us when least expected.
My own percentages for the different scenarios would go like this:
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