Bitcoin long history with the MA100

22 thg 2, 2019

Hey, I got some stats for you.

So Bitcoin MA 100 got tested 38 times since 2010, and this happened:

* Clean bounce : 12 times
* The MA got passed, with little follow up (< 10%), the price stagnated, and then the price went back the other way: 9 times
* Break with follow up (immediate): 7 times
* MA break followed by rapid reversal (like bouncing on it but after passing throught it a bit > 10%): 3 times
* Break MA slighlty, stagnates, then continues: 3 times (case #26 in the screenshot is the 3rd time)
* Bounce, stagnates, breaks: 1 time

Here are all the times Bitcoin MA 100 got tested:










The 3 cases when the MA got slightly broken, then price stagnated, and then there was follow through, in 2 cases the price stagnated for a very long time on the opposite side of the MA before breaking it weakly.


So to sum up out of 38 times the 100MA got visited, the price broke it and stagnated 12 times, and out of these 12 times, only 3 were wins for traders buying the break.

Is this always the same? With other markets?


That seems logical. If a resistance gets broken, but there is no follow up the first few days, it would seem very unlikely anything happens. You need an initial snowball to grow a snowball bigger.
But I never backtested the MA100 or any moving average actually, that much. What do you think? The odds of going up are about 1 in 4?

24 thg 2, 2019

Ghi chú

If Bitcoin can go above 4500 (I say 4500 because 4300 could just be stops being run), I believe the price will go all the way to 5800, possibly 7500.
But right now, shorting Bitcoin is way too attractive. Why would I bet on it going up?

24 thg 2, 2019

Ghi chú

So Bitcoin is dumping, obviously. Got very close to resistance then dumps, who could have seen this coming Bitcoin never does this.
Watch the uptrend watch MA's watch fib. But in the greater scale of things, Bitcoin is just still in consolidation. If it breaks above it should go to $5800 or something, if it breaks below, 1800 it is.


The really really funny thing is that bears have taken this chance to "lower their risk" and "break even" boo hoo hoo wannabee traders saw the price spike up and shat their pants. haha.


Everyone is scared, the ones betting in the price going up are closing too.


Scared...
Got to take risks to make money...

24 thg 2, 2019

Ghi chú

WOW nevermind my previous post!
Did Craig just sell? XD

24 thg 2, 2019

Ghi chú

ummm well at the trendline now

24 thg 2, 2019

Ghi chú

Oh ye it is reacting. I should have scalped this? XD Nah not touching it.
Not sure it hold more than a few minutes, too hot for me.

24 thg 2, 2019

Ghi chú

Testing MA100...


Following a line

25 thg 2, 2019

Ghi chú

Oil is on the MA100 itself ayy lmao
A while ago I made a post Oil was bouncing before Bitcoin it was in the same market cycle but in advance, now BTC caught up and Oil is late.

25 thg 2, 2019

Ghi chú

26 thg 2, 2019

Ghi chú

Weak bull follow up for Bit-con as usual

26 thg 2, 2019

Ghi chú

Aaaaand down it went, the uptrend could get re-tested as resistance and then the price would drop.
They will probably try saving Bitcoin before it fall and everything.
This could take a whole week.


Kind of similar situations, but BTC is heavier than last year now.

27 thg 2, 2019

Ghi chú

Well it's holding which hasn't happened in 18 months.



More a sign of desperate bagHODLers praying everyday they donj't lose all their money & non-traders buying support.

The lack of follow up while extreme high bullish sentiment and severe hostility towards bears just shows that no one is actually interested in buying and holding Bitcoin, and the market is still full of baggies most of which are going to have to sell eventually.

27 thg 2, 2019

Ghi chú

Would not be surprised one bit if the second the month closes crypto crashes another 15%
Could also get tethered up. A whale waiting for the month close to sell seems more likely thought.
Poor little ignorant retail investors persuaded they know everything better than every one else going to get shrekt again.